OK, let’s put the Rawlsian veil of ignorance down. So I don’t know who I’m going to be. I’d still prefer a few parts-per-thousand probability of getting AIDS than a 10% probability of having a sexual orientation for a gender with whom I’m forbidden from having sex with.
(OTOH, a monogamous relationship, incl. marriage, is more-or-less-implicitly a contract where you agree—among other things—not to have sex with anyone else, so I do agree that the behaviour of “the entire apparatus of state” you describe in the second part of the last paragraph is wrong.)
a 10% probability of having a sexual orientation for a gender with whom I’m forbidden from having sex with.
Wikipedia indicates that this number is substantially too high. Random representative samples seem to give results of a few percent or less, with higher figures coming from non-representative samples such as prisons, urban areas which concentrate the gay population from surrounding regions, and unscientific polls by condom manufacturers.
I had also underestimated the probability of fatal STDs by an order of magnitude: AIDS alone caused 4.87% of all deaths in 2002. (OTOH, the fact that there are quite a few countries with a two-digit prevalence of HIV makes me seriously doubt sam0345′s claim that “the main disease reservoir” “is adult male homosexuals”. There’s no way gay men comprise a major part of 26% of Swaziland’s population.)
quite a few countries with a two-digit prevalence of HIV makes me seriously doubt sam0345′s claim that “the main disease reservoir” “is adult male homosexuals”. There’s no way gay men comprise a major part of 26% of Swaziland’s population.)
AIDS in Africa is not spread by homosexuals, but by foreign aid: More precisely, by needle reuse in health facilities supported by foreign aid.
In the west, AIDS is, in its pattern of affliction and causation, wrath of God disease. In Africa, AIDS is, in its pattern of affliction and causation, wrath of progressivism disease.
The more AIDS patients you have, the more money you get, so no incentive to sterilize needles. And everyone feels a pleasant glow of progressive holiness and piety at the sight of non homosexuals and non drug users getting AIDS, so no one really wants to halt this display of holiness and sacredness.
The typical African AIDS victim is the faithful wife of a faithful husband who catches the disease because she attends a foreign aid funded clinic while pregnant. That will teach them to be married and faithful.
An article in New Scientist from a decade ago talking about a “controversial new analysis,” without any follow-up in subsequent years is a pretty weak source. Here is Robin Hanson’s post, arguing for the same claim with more recent and better sources, although still unconvincing.
They want to vaccinate vast numbers of people that are unlikely to need it at considerable expense
How much?
Last I heard, $400 for a course, $100 for a dose. If this did not involve sex, such a vaccine would be targeted at at risk populations.
A ten pack of combined tetanus and diptheria vaccine costs $20 and everyone is at roughly comparable risk, so it is reasonable to give the tet/dipth vaccine out like lollipops or McDonald’s toys. Maybe the HPV vaccination should be handed out free at the sex clinic, but it seems to me that the reason that they want to give it to schoolgirls is because they donot want to give it out free at the sex clinic.
The mistakes you’re posting have already been corrected by myself and paper-machine over in this branch of the thread. You are entitled to your own opinions (values), but you are not entitled to your own facts. Please do some research on the subject from medical sources; and do bear in mind that mainstream scientific sources bear a much higher probability of being right (and not merely a much higher status) than fringe or speculative sources. If we lived in a world where fringe political columnists were an accurate source for medical facts and doctors were not, then we would all go to John Derbyshire to treat our diseases. We don’t. Why not?
The mistakes you’re posting have already been corrected by myself and paper-machine over in this branch of the thread.
Your “correction” is that the purpose of the vaccination is not herd immunity, but individual and personal benefit—but the claim justifying compulsory and/or free vaccination is always herd immunity. If no substantial externality, no justification for compulsion and/or subsidy.
In fact, of course, the reason for compulsory HPV vaccination is to avoid stigmatization. If girls get to individually choose whether they want a vaccination against a sexually transmitted disease, those who so choose might be stigmatized.
OTOH, a monogamous relationship, incl. marriage, is more-or-less-implicitly a contract where you agree—among other things—not to have sex with anyone else
Cheating is quite common; about 20% of married people have affairs and the rate is higher in putatively-monogamous unmarried partnerships. Around 3% of children are the result of affairs.
I’m not sure what other sorts of “contracts” have a 20% chance of default. I don’t think banks would offer you a loan if they thought there was a 20% chance you wouldn’t pay up. Even Florida’s foreclosure rate isn’t that bad!
OK, let’s put the Rawlsian veil of ignorance down. So I don’t know who I’m going to be. I’d still prefer a few parts-per-thousand probability of getting AIDS than a 10% probability of having a sexual orientation for a gender with whom I’m forbidden from having sex with.
(OTOH, a monogamous relationship, incl. marriage, is more-or-less-implicitly a contract where you agree—among other things—not to have sex with anyone else, so I do agree that the behaviour of “the entire apparatus of state” you describe in the second part of the last paragraph is wrong.)
EDIT: Retracted—numbers are way off (see below).
How much?
Wikipedia indicates that this number is substantially too high. Random representative samples seem to give results of a few percent or less, with higher figures coming from non-representative samples such as prisons, urban areas which concentrate the gay population from surrounding regions, and unscientific polls by condom manufacturers.
I had also underestimated the probability of fatal STDs by an order of magnitude: AIDS alone caused 4.87% of all deaths in 2002. (OTOH, the fact that there are quite a few countries with a two-digit prevalence of HIV makes me seriously doubt sam0345′s claim that “the main disease reservoir” “is adult male homosexuals”. There’s no way gay men comprise a major part of 26% of Swaziland’s population.)
AIDS in Africa is not spread by homosexuals, but by foreign aid: More precisely, by needle reuse in health facilities supported by foreign aid.
In the west, AIDS is, in its pattern of affliction and causation, wrath of God disease. In Africa, AIDS is, in its pattern of affliction and causation, wrath of progressivism disease.
The more AIDS patients you have, the more money you get, so no incentive to sterilize needles. And everyone feels a pleasant glow of progressive holiness and piety at the sight of non homosexuals and non drug users getting AIDS, so no one really wants to halt this display of holiness and sacredness.
The typical African AIDS victim is the faithful wife of a faithful husband who catches the disease because she attends a foreign aid funded clinic while pregnant. That will teach them to be married and faithful.
An article in New Scientist from a decade ago talking about a “controversial new analysis,” without any follow-up in subsequent years is a pretty weak source. Here is Robin Hanson’s post, arguing for the same claim with more recent and better sources, although still unconvincing.
Last I heard, $400 for a course, $100 for a dose. If this did not involve sex, such a vaccine would be targeted at at risk populations.
A ten pack of combined tetanus and diptheria vaccine costs $20 and everyone is at roughly comparable risk, so it is reasonable to give the tet/dipth vaccine out like lollipops or McDonald’s toys. Maybe the HPV vaccination should be handed out free at the sex clinic, but it seems to me that the reason that they want to give it to schoolgirls is because they do not want to give it out free at the sex clinic.
The mistakes you’re posting have already been corrected by myself and paper-machine over in this branch of the thread. You are entitled to your own opinions (values), but you are not entitled to your own facts. Please do some research on the subject from medical sources; and do bear in mind that mainstream scientific sources bear a much higher probability of being right (and not merely a much higher status) than fringe or speculative sources. If we lived in a world where fringe political columnists were an accurate source for medical facts and doctors were not, then we would all go to John Derbyshire to treat our diseases. We don’t. Why not?
Your “correction” is that the purpose of the vaccination is not herd immunity, but individual and personal benefit—but the claim justifying compulsory and/or free vaccination is always herd immunity. If no substantial externality, no justification for compulsion and/or subsidy.
In fact, of course, the reason for compulsory HPV vaccination is to avoid stigmatization. If girls get to individually choose whether they want a vaccination against a sexually transmitted disease, those who so choose might be stigmatized.
Cheating is quite common; about 20% of married people have affairs and the rate is higher in putatively-monogamous unmarried partnerships. Around 3% of children are the result of affairs.
I’m not sure what other sorts of “contracts” have a 20% chance of default. I don’t think banks would offer you a loan if they thought there was a 20% chance you wouldn’t pay up. Even Florida’s foreclosure rate isn’t that bad!
End-user licence agreements of commercial software?