I don’t think I’m willing to bet on every prediction that I make. However, I pledge the following: if, after updating on the fact that you want to bet me, I still disagree with you, then I will bet. The disagreement must be non-trivial though.
For obvious reasons, I also won’t bet on predictions that are old, and have already been replaced by newer predictions. I also may not be willing to bet on predictions that have unclear resolution criteria, or are about human extinction.
I now have a Twitter account that tweets my predictions.
I don’t think I’m willing to bet on every prediction that I make. However, I pledge the following: if, after updating on the fact that you want to bet me, I still disagree with you, then I will bet. The disagreement must be non-trivial though.
For obvious reasons, I also won’t bet on predictions that are old, and have already been replaced by newer predictions. I also may not be willing to bet on predictions that have unclear resolution criteria, or are about human extinction.