Mathematically, it seems like you should just give your heuristic the better data you already consciously have: If your untrustworthy senses say you aren’t on the mainline, the correct move isn’t necessarily to believe them, but rather to decide to put effort into figuring it out, because it’s important.
It’s clear how your heuristic would evolve. To embrace it correctly, you should make sure that your entire life lives in the mainline. If there’s a game with negative expected value, where the worst outcome has chance 10%, and you play it 20 times, that’s stupid. Budget the probability you are willing to throw away for the rest of your life now.
If you don’t think you can stay to your budget, if you know that always, you will tomorrow play another round of that game by the same reasoning as today, then realize that today’s reasoning decides today and tomorrow. Realize that the mainline of giving in to the heuristic is losing eventually, and let the heuristic destroy itself immediately.
Mathematically, it seems like you should just give your heuristic the better data you already consciously have: If your untrustworthy senses say you aren’t on the mainline, the correct move isn’t necessarily to believe them, but rather to decide to put effort into figuring it out, because it’s important.
It’s clear how your heuristic would evolve. To embrace it correctly, you should make sure that your entire life lives in the mainline. If there’s a game with negative expected value, where the worst outcome has chance 10%, and you play it 20 times, that’s stupid. Budget the probability you are willing to throw away for the rest of your life now.
If you don’t think you can stay to your budget, if you know that always, you will tomorrow play another round of that game by the same reasoning as today, then realize that today’s reasoning decides today and tomorrow. Realize that the mainline of giving in to the heuristic is losing eventually, and let the heuristic destroy itself immediately.