(1) seems reasonable as a model at this level of abstraction, absent quibbles about whether some outcome really is AGI or not, instead of some degree of AGI-ness.
(2) seems utterly wrong, and I don’t think it even makes sense to talk about a “first trial” as being a clear-cut thing, let alone having a sensible probability, and definitely not as something related to success of all future trials. I contend that it is not even “semi-informative”, it is useless.
(1) seems reasonable as a model at this level of abstraction, absent quibbles about whether some outcome really is AGI or not, instead of some degree of AGI-ness.
(2) seems utterly wrong, and I don’t think it even makes sense to talk about a “first trial” as being a clear-cut thing, let alone having a sensible probability, and definitely not as something related to success of all future trials. I contend that it is not even “semi-informative”, it is useless.