We all basically know that complex systems are unpredictable...I’m interested in how others identify complex systems...
Following from your quotes above, you could focus your search on systems for which the accuracy of predictions has been poor.
We are able to personally develop heuristics for evaluating predictions and complex systems, but sharing them with others is really tough.
FYI: This is basically the subject of the book Blink by Malcolm Gladwell. It’s by no means a rigorous examination, a little too anecdotal, but you might find it useful.
Following from your quotes above, you could focus your search on systems for which the accuracy of predictions has been poor.
Mmm, reading the post it seems like it’s driving towards “unpredictable” as an operational definition of “complex”. And, reflecting a bit, I reckon that’s not too far from how people actually tend to use the idea of a “complex system”.
Following from your quotes above, you could focus your search on systems for which the accuracy of predictions has been poor.
FYI: This is basically the subject of the book Blink by Malcolm Gladwell. It’s by no means a rigorous examination, a little too anecdotal, but you might find it useful.
Mmm, reading the post it seems like it’s driving towards “unpredictable” as an operational definition of “complex”. And, reflecting a bit, I reckon that’s not too far from how people actually tend to use the idea of a “complex system”.