Eliezer’s descriptions of his intellectual history and past mistakes are very convincing positive signals to me.
I agree, but have a nagging doubt. When I read years-old writings where he makes some of those mistakes he sounds about as knowledgeable, just as smart, just as honest, and just as sure he’s right as he is now in his new beliefs.
Although I was convinced by very few of those older mistakes (before I searched and found retractions) that could just as easily mean new arguments got super persuasive rather than super accurate.
His writings have convinced me to change many beliefs recently. How much is that down to elite arguing skills well-practiced from convincing the toughest judge of all, himself? What ratio of those beliefs are likely to be wrong, however convincing the arguments sound to me, and to him?
Believe it or not, this isn’t meant to be critical. I can’t fault the way he’s currently guiding his belief system, and to me he seems further along the path I’m trying to start on than anyone I know. I’m just not sure how to objectively judge from back here how far along the path he’s really managed to get.
Thoughts about other sources of knowledge welcome, this doesn’t need to be about one person.
Eliezer’s descriptions of his intellectual history and past mistakes are very convincing positive signals to me.
I agree, but have a nagging doubt. When I read years-old writings where he makes some of those mistakes he sounds about as knowledgeable, just as smart, just as honest, and just as sure he’s right as he is now in his new beliefs.
Although I was convinced by very few of those older mistakes (before I searched and found retractions) that could just as easily mean new arguments got super persuasive rather than super accurate.
His writings have convinced me to change many beliefs recently. How much is that down to elite arguing skills well-practiced from convincing the toughest judge of all, himself? What ratio of those beliefs are likely to be wrong, however convincing the arguments sound to me, and to him?
Believe it or not, this isn’t meant to be critical. I can’t fault the way he’s currently guiding his belief system, and to me he seems further along the path I’m trying to start on than anyone I know. I’m just not sure how to objectively judge from back here how far along the path he’s really managed to get.
Thoughts about other sources of knowledge welcome, this doesn’t need to be about one person.