[link] Bruce Schneier on Cognitive Biases in Risk Analysis
A very clear-minded introduction to map-vs-territory ideas in the context of risk analysis. Nothing particularly new here, though the specific examples he gives may be of interest to LW readers.
Thanks, interesting!
I’ve been thinking about writing an article on risk assessment as a worthwhile field of study or source of tools for LWers. The upshot is that it offers a pretty good rationality toolbox and there are lots of jobs, but it’s suboptimal in some important ways.
I took a course on health risk assessment and it came pretty close to being Rationality 101 - covered the gamut from probability theory to expected utility to cognitive biases.
ETA: Googling something else returned this, which I hadn’t read but is presents an excellent example of the kind of thing I mean by “suboptimal”.