It sounds like you’ve made a good case for high noise in the data. I was around on the internet in 2010, when arguments about the “global warming pause” were everywhere. And this is triggering the same sort of detectors. Not in the sense of “I have an inside view of comparable strength to global warming,” I mean the sense of “my model tells me to expect noise at least this big sometimes, so the shape of this graph isn’t as informative as if first appears, and we kinda have to wait and see.”
It sounds like you’ve made a good case for high noise in the data. I was around on the internet in 2010, when arguments about the “global warming pause” were everywhere. And this is triggering the same sort of detectors. Not in the sense of “I have an inside view of comparable strength to global warming,” I mean the sense of “my model tells me to expect noise at least this big sometimes, so the shape of this graph isn’t as informative as if first appears, and we kinda have to wait and see.”