Yeah, I definitely think we’re very early in the transition. I would still say it’s extremely likely (>90%) even given no new “breakthroughs”.
The real-life commercial uses of AI+robotics are still pretty limited at this point. Off the top of my head I can only think of Roomba, Tesla, Kiva and those security robots in malls.
Anecdotally, from the people I talk do deep learning + any application in science seems to yield immediate low-hanging fruit (one recent example being protein folding). I think the limiting factor right now is the number of deep learning + robotics experts is extremely small. It’s also the case that a robot has to be very cheap to compete with an employee making minimum wage (even in developed countries). If there were 10000x as many deep learning experts and everyone in the world was earning $30/hour I think we would see robots taking over many more jobs than we do presently.
I also think it’s likely that better AI + more compute will dramatically accelerate this transition. Maybe there will be some threshold at which this transition will become more obviously inevitable than it is today.
Perhaps”when will TAI be developed?” is something that can only be answered retrospectively. By way of analogy, it now seems obvious to us that the invention of the steam engine (1698) and flying shuttle (1733) marked the beginning of a major change in how humans worked, but it wasn’t until the 1800′s that those changes began to appear in the labor market.
Sure. And the kiva and roomba examples : at a low level both machines could work using pure non deep learning software. 2d SLAM is a ‘classic’ technique at this point, and nothing in the way kiva robots move in x-y grids requires deep learning to work.
Robots that for example do soft complex object picking are using DL, and are an example of a machine that actually needs it to work. Ditto any autonomous car.
Yeah Tesla is using DL for the distance estimation. Dunno about the mall robots.
Yeah, I definitely think we’re very early in the transition. I would still say it’s extremely likely (>90%) even given no new “breakthroughs”.
The real-life commercial uses of AI+robotics are still pretty limited at this point. Off the top of my head I can only think of Roomba, Tesla, Kiva and those security robots in malls.
Anecdotally, from the people I talk do deep learning + any application in science seems to yield immediate low-hanging fruit (one recent example being protein folding). I think the limiting factor right now is the number of deep learning + robotics experts is extremely small. It’s also the case that a robot has to be very cheap to compete with an employee making minimum wage (even in developed countries). If there were 10000x as many deep learning experts and everyone in the world was earning $30/hour I think we would see robots taking over many more jobs than we do presently.
I also think it’s likely that better AI + more compute will dramatically accelerate this transition. Maybe there will be some threshold at which this transition will become more obviously inevitable than it is today.
Perhaps”when will TAI be developed?” is something that can only be answered retrospectively. By way of analogy, it now seems obvious to us that the invention of the steam engine (1698) and flying shuttle (1733) marked the beginning of a major change in how humans worked, but it wasn’t until the 1800′s that those changes began to appear in the labor market.
Sure. And the kiva and roomba examples : at a low level both machines could work using pure non deep learning software. 2d SLAM is a ‘classic’ technique at this point, and nothing in the way kiva robots move in x-y grids requires deep learning to work.
Robots that for example do soft complex object picking are using DL, and are an example of a machine that actually needs it to work. Ditto any autonomous car.
Yeah Tesla is using DL for the distance estimation. Dunno about the mall robots.