I don’t quite understand the point you are making. If I’m following correctly, he is arguing that the probability estimate depends on whether:
a) We use the self-indicative assumption and ignore duplication issues
b) We use the self-selecting assumption and argue for using a particular reference class
He isn’t arguing that we can randomly imagine any assumptions that we feel like.
I don’t quite understand the point you are making. If I’m following correctly, he is arguing that the probability estimate depends on whether:
a) We use the self-indicative assumption and ignore duplication issues
b) We use the self-selecting assumption and argue for using a particular reference class
He isn’t arguing that we can randomly imagine any assumptions that we feel like.