Ah! I’ve got it now. The assumption that bots are available doesn’t weaken the case for an early elevator. The assumption that bots are necessary does weaken the case.
I don’t know why it took me so long to pick up on that. Sorry.
No problem. I wasn’t sure I was being fair in inferring that the bots were necessary. If they aren’t necessary, then by the same exact logic, our probability ought to go up - ‘A v B ~> C’ is stronger than ‘A ~> C’. (The more independent pathways to a result, the more likely one will work within a certain time span.)
Ah! I’ve got it now. The assumption that bots are available doesn’t weaken the case for an early elevator. The assumption that bots are necessary does weaken the case.
I don’t know why it took me so long to pick up on that. Sorry.
No problem. I wasn’t sure I was being fair in inferring that the bots were necessary. If they aren’t necessary, then by the same exact logic, our probability ought to go up - ‘A v B ~> C’ is stronger than ‘A ~> C’. (The more independent pathways to a result, the more likely one will work within a certain time span.)