Yeah, Russell’s argument is ruled out by the evidence, yes.
The idea of a bias only holds if e.g. what Russell considered 100% of all possibilities only actually constituted 80% of the possibilities
I’m considering the view of a reader of Russell’s argument. If a reader thought “there is a 80% chance that Russell’s argument is correct”, how good of a belief would that be?
Because IRL, Yudkowsky assigns a nearly 100% chance to his doom theory, and I need to come up with the x such that I should believe “Yudkowsky’s doom argument has a x% chance of being correct”.
Yeah, Russell’s argument is ruled out by the evidence, yes.
I’m considering the view of a reader of Russell’s argument. If a reader thought “there is a 80% chance that Russell’s argument is correct”, how good of a belief would that be?
Because IRL, Yudkowsky assigns a nearly 100% chance to his doom theory, and I need to come up with the x such that I should believe “Yudkowsky’s doom argument has a x% chance of being correct”.