This just comes back to the question of how truth-tracking the two people think the given expert community is, and how they should set their bets based on those anticipations. If one is worried about temporally local perturbations (see e.g. this bet), one could also agree to randomly sample the expert population at 15 years, 20 years, and 25 years.
This just comes back to the question of how truth-tracking the two people think the given expert community is, and how they should set their bets based on those anticipations. If one is worried about temporally local perturbations (see e.g. this bet), one could also agree to randomly sample the expert population at 15 years, 20 years, and 25 years.