It seems like the moral of this parable should be “don’t make foolish, incoherent hedges” — however, the final explanations given by Eternidad don’t touch on this at all. I would be more satisfied by this parable if the concluding explanations focused on the problems of naive data aggregation.
The “three reasons” given are useful ideas, but the king’s decision in this story is foolish even if this scenario was all three: a closed game, an iterated game, and only a betting situation. (Just imagine betting on a hundred coin flips that the coin will land on its edge every time.)
Agreed.
It seems like the moral of this parable should be “don’t make foolish, incoherent hedges” — however, the final explanations given by Eternidad don’t touch on this at all. I would be more satisfied by this parable if the concluding explanations focused on the problems of naive data aggregation.
The “three reasons” given are useful ideas, but the king’s decision in this story is foolish even if this scenario was all three: a closed game, an iterated game, and only a betting situation. (Just imagine betting on a hundred coin flips that the coin will land on its edge every time.)