I am surprised the advisors don’t propose the king to follow the weighted average of decisions rather than thinking about predictions and picking the associated decision.
This is intuitively the formal model underlying the obvious strategy of preparing for either outcomes.
That is probably close to what they would suggest if this weren’t mainly just a metaphor for the weird ways that I’ve seen people thinking about AI timelines.
It might be a bit more complex than a simple weighted average because of discounting, but that would be the basic shape of the proper hedge.
I am surprised the advisors don’t propose the king to follow the weighted average of decisions rather than thinking about predictions and picking the associated decision.
This is intuitively the formal model underlying the obvious strategy of preparing for either outcomes.
That is probably close to what they would suggest if this weren’t mainly just a metaphor for the weird ways that I’ve seen people thinking about AI timelines.
It might be a bit more complex than a simple weighted average because of discounting, but that would be the basic shape of the proper hedge.