Any thoughts on what the impact of the http://www.research.ibm.com/deepqa/ IBM Watson Deepqa project would be on a Foom timescale, if it is successful (in the sense of approximate parity with human competitors)? My impression was that classical AI failed primarily because of brittle closed-world approximations, and this project looks like it (if successful) would largely overcome those obstacles. For instance, it seems like one could integrate a deepqa engine with planning and optimization engines in a fairly straightforward way. To put it another way, in the form of an idea futures proposition: conditional on deepqa being fully successful at a human-equivalent level, what are the odds of a human equivalent UFAI in all areas needed for recursive self-improvement plus replication without human intervention in say 5 years after that point?
Best wishes,
-Jeff
Any thoughts on what the impact of the http://www.research.ibm.com/deepqa/ IBM Watson Deepqa project would be on a Foom timescale, if it is successful (in the sense of approximate parity with human competitors)? My impression was that classical AI failed primarily because of brittle closed-world approximations, and this project looks like it (if successful) would largely overcome those obstacles. For instance, it seems like one could integrate a deepqa engine with planning and optimization engines in a fairly straightforward way. To put it another way, in the form of an idea futures proposition: conditional on deepqa being fully successful at a human-equivalent level, what are the odds of a human equivalent UFAI in all areas needed for recursive self-improvement plus replication without human intervention in say 5 years after that point? Best wishes, -Jeff