I think you’re still injecting human-mind-ish-ness. Let me try to stretch your conception of “mind”.
The ocean “wants” to increase efficiency of heat transfer from the equator to the poles. It applies a process akin to simulated annealing with titanic processing power. Has it considered the von Neumann-Morganstern axioms? Is it sane? Is it safe? Is it harnessable?
A colony of microorganisms “wants” to survive and reproduce. In an environment with finite resources (like a wine barrel) is it likely to kill itself off? Is that sane? Are colonies of microorganisms safe? Are they harnessable?
A computer program that grows out of control could be more like the ocean optimizing heat transfer, or a colony of microorganisms “trying” to survive and reproduce. The von Neumann-Morganstern axioms are intensely connected to human notions of math, philosophy and happiness. I think predicting that they’re attractors in mind-space is exactly as implausible as predicting that the Golden Rule is an attractor in mind-space.
A computer program that grows out of control could be more like the ocean optimizing heat transfer, or a colony of microorganisms “trying” to survive and reproduce.
It could. But it wouldn’t be an AGI. They could still become ‘grey goo’ though, which is a different existential threat and yes, it is one where your ‘find their weakness’ thing is right on the mark. Are we even talking about the same topic here?
The topic as I understand it is how the “default future” espoused by SIAI and EY focuses too much on things that look something like HAL or Prime Intellect (and their risks and benefits), and not enough on entities that display super-human capacities in only some arenas (and their risks and benefits).
In particular, an entity that is powerful in some ways and weak in other ways could reduce existential risks without becoming an existential risk.
I think you’re still injecting human-mind-ish-ness. Let me try to stretch your conception of “mind”.
The ocean “wants” to increase efficiency of heat transfer from the equator to the poles. It applies a process akin to simulated annealing with titanic processing power. Has it considered the von Neumann-Morganstern axioms? Is it sane? Is it safe? Is it harnessable?
A colony of microorganisms “wants” to survive and reproduce. In an environment with finite resources (like a wine barrel) is it likely to kill itself off? Is that sane? Are colonies of microorganisms safe? Are they harnessable?
A computer program that grows out of control could be more like the ocean optimizing heat transfer, or a colony of microorganisms “trying” to survive and reproduce. The von Neumann-Morganstern axioms are intensely connected to human notions of math, philosophy and happiness. I think predicting that they’re attractors in mind-space is exactly as implausible as predicting that the Golden Rule is an attractor in mind-space.
It could. But it wouldn’t be an AGI. They could still become ‘grey goo’ though, which is a different existential threat and yes, it is one where your ‘find their weakness’ thing is right on the mark. Are we even talking about the same topic here?
The topic as I understand it is how the “default future” espoused by SIAI and EY focuses too much on things that look something like HAL or Prime Intellect (and their risks and benefits), and not enough on entities that display super-human capacities in only some arenas (and their risks and benefits).
In particular, an entity that is powerful in some ways and weak in other ways could reduce existential risks without becoming an existential risk.
That seems to be switching context. I was originally talking about a “superintelligence”, The ocean and grey goo would clearly not qualify.
FWIW, expected utility theory is a pretty general economic idea that nicely covers any goal-seeking agent.