In defense of FDT, in the logical counterfactual mugging, I can see two situations:
Omega asked you beforehand if you wanted to participate or not. If this is the case, I’m pretty sure FDT (and others) say you should calculate the 2999th digit of pi and say “yes” or “no” based on that. Then you never need to pay. If that calculation is not viable to you, that’s a skill issue well, these decision theories don’t try to solve bounded rationality.
Omega just appeared out of nowhere, explained that it would have given you 10k if the digit was even, but it’s odd, and asks you to hand over the $100. This isn’t counterfactual mugging, it’s just mugging. All cited decision theories say you should say no, since mugging is illegal.
In defense of FDT, in the logical counterfactual mugging, I can see two situations:
Omega asked you beforehand if you wanted to participate or not. If this is the case, I’m pretty sure FDT (and others) say you should calculate the 2999th digit of pi and say “yes” or “no” based on that. Then you never need to pay. If that calculation is not viable to you,
that’s a skill issuewell, these decision theories don’t try to solve bounded rationality.Omega just appeared out of nowhere, explained that it would have given you 10k if the digit was even, but it’s odd, and asks you to hand over the $100. This isn’t counterfactual mugging, it’s just mugging. All cited decision theories say you should say no, since mugging is illegal.