The game theory behind Werewolf goes deeper than that. Werewolf is an iterated game, if you play it at least once on a friday you’re probably playing at least four more times in succession. A good way to pick up whether someone is a Villager or a Baddie is to notice how their behavior during the game correlates with their revealed role at the end of the game.
Alice is a noob player and is always quiet when she’s a Baddie and talkative and open when she’s a Villager. She’s giving off easy tells that an observant player like Bob picks up on. He can then notice these tells while in the middle of a game and exploit them to win more against Alice.
Declan is a more skilled but somewhat new player. He is open and talkative regardless of his role. This makes it very easy for him to play Villager but he struggles to win when a Baddie because his open behavior leads to him often being caught out on provable lies.
Carol is a sophisticated Werewolf player. Each game she is maximizing not just to win that game, but to also win future games against the same players. Carol knows that she is the most sophisticated player in her group. When she’s a Villager she can figure out which other players are Baddies much more often than the other Villagers. Her best plan as Villager then is to convince the other Villagers that her reads and analysis are correct without regard to the truthfulness of her persuasive strategies. Some people notice that she’s not being 100% truthful and call it out as Werewolf behavior, but everyone at the table acknowledges that this is just how Carol plays and sometimes she lies even as a Villager. This serves her well in her next game as a Baddie where she uses the same tactics and doesn’t give away any tells. Carol is no more suspicious or less open about her own info on average as a Baddie than as a Villager.
Errol is a Logical Decision Theorist. Whenever he’s playing a game of Werewolf, he’s trying to not just win that game, but to maximize his probability of winning across all versions of the game, assuming he’s predictable to other players. Errol firmly commits to reporting whether he’s a werewolf whenever he gets handed that role, reasoning that behind the veil of ignorance, he’s much more likely to land as villager than as werewolf, and that villager team always having a known villager greatly increases his overall odds of winning. Errol follows through with his commitments. Errol is not very fun to play with and has since been banned from his gaming group.
Each game she is maximizing not just to win that game, but to also win future games against the same players.
This sounded really wrong to me. Like, what is the analogy in real life? I am a good guy today, but I predict that I may become a criminal tomorrow, so I am already optimizing to make it difficult to figure out?
But I suppose, in real life, circumstances also change, so things that are not criminal today may become criminal tomorrow, so you can be a good guy today and also optimize to make yourself safe when the circumstances change, even if your values won’t.
The game theory behind Werewolf goes deeper than that. Werewolf is an iterated game, if you play it at least once on a friday you’re probably playing at least four more times in succession. A good way to pick up whether someone is a Villager or a Baddie is to notice how their behavior during the game correlates with their revealed role at the end of the game.
Alice is a noob player and is always quiet when she’s a Baddie and talkative and open when she’s a Villager. She’s giving off easy tells that an observant player like Bob picks up on. He can then notice these tells while in the middle of a game and exploit them to win more against Alice.
Declan is a more skilled but somewhat new player. He is open and talkative regardless of his role. This makes it very easy for him to play Villager but he struggles to win when a Baddie because his open behavior leads to him often being caught out on provable lies.
Carol is a sophisticated Werewolf player. Each game she is maximizing not just to win that game, but to also win future games against the same players. Carol knows that she is the most sophisticated player in her group. When she’s a Villager she can figure out which other players are Baddies much more often than the other Villagers. Her best plan as Villager then is to convince the other Villagers that her reads and analysis are correct without regard to the truthfulness of her persuasive strategies. Some people notice that she’s not being 100% truthful and call it out as Werewolf behavior, but everyone at the table acknowledges that this is just how Carol plays and sometimes she lies even as a Villager. This serves her well in her next game as a Baddie where she uses the same tactics and doesn’t give away any tells. Carol is no more suspicious or less open about her own info on average as a Baddie than as a Villager.
Errol is a Logical Decision Theorist. Whenever he’s playing a game of Werewolf, he’s trying to not just win that game, but to maximize his probability of winning across all versions of the game, assuming he’s predictable to other players. Errol firmly commits to reporting whether he’s a werewolf whenever he gets handed that role, reasoning that behind the veil of ignorance, he’s much more likely to land as villager than as werewolf, and that villager team always having a known villager greatly increases his overall odds of winning. Errol follows through with his commitments. Errol is not very fun to play with and has since been banned from his gaming group.
This sounded really wrong to me. Like, what is the analogy in real life? I am a good guy today, but I predict that I may become a criminal tomorrow, so I am already optimizing to make it difficult to figure out?
But I suppose, in real life, circumstances also change, so things that are not criminal today may become criminal tomorrow, so you can be a good guy today and also optimize to make yourself safe when the circumstances change, even if your values won’t.