That is a very fair question to ask. However, it’s not something that I’m interested in diving into. Sorry.
I will say that Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence comes to mind. A lot of the evidence we have probably wouldn’t be admissible as legal evidence, and perhaps some not even as scientific evidence. But IMO, there is in fact a very large amount of Bayesian evidence that Nonlinear has crossed the line (hard to articulate where exactly the line is) by a very large margin.
As does the idea of being anchored to common sense, and resistant to reason as memetic immune disorder. Like if you described this story to a bunch of friends at a bar, I think the obvious, intuitive, “normie” conclusion would be that Nonlinear crossed the line by a wide margin (a handful of normie friends I mentioned this to felt this way).
I’ll also point out that gut instincts can certainly count as Bayesian evidence, and I’m non-trivially incorporating mine here.
If there was a way to bet on it, I’d be eager to. If anyone wants to, I’d probably be down to bet up to a few hundred dollars. I’d trust a lot of random people here (above 100 karma, let’s say) to approach the bet in an honorable way and I am not concerned about the possibility that I end up feeling unhappy with how things turn out (worst case it’s a few hundred bucks, oh well).
That is a very fair question to ask. However, it’s not something that I’m interested in diving into. Sorry.
I will say that Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence comes to mind. A lot of the evidence we have probably wouldn’t be admissible as legal evidence, and perhaps some not even as scientific evidence. But IMO, there is in fact a very large amount of Bayesian evidence that Nonlinear has crossed the line (hard to articulate where exactly the line is) by a very large margin.
Faster Than Science also comes to mind.
The Sin of Underconfidence also comes to mind.
As does the idea of being anchored to common sense, and resistant to reason as memetic immune disorder. Like if you described this story to a bunch of friends at a bar, I think the obvious, intuitive, “normie” conclusion would be that Nonlinear crossed the line by a wide margin (a handful of normie friends I mentioned this to felt this way).
I’ll also point out that gut instincts can certainly count as Bayesian evidence, and I’m non-trivially incorporating mine here.
If there was a way to bet on it, I’d be eager to. If anyone wants to, I’d probably be down to bet up to a few hundred dollars. I’d trust a lot of random people here (above 100 karma, let’s say) to approach the bet in an honorable way and I am not concerned about the possibility that I end up feeling unhappy with how things turn out (worst case it’s a few hundred bucks, oh well).