I think the downvotes are coming because people don’t realize you’re doing the exercise at the start of the post, and rather think that you’re making these claims after having read the rest of the post. I don’t think you should lose karma for that, so I’m upvoting; but you may want to state at the top that’s what you’re doing.
Ex ante, it is obvious I should’ve mentioned that. But I just saw a bunch of comments making these guesses, and I thought my edit made it clear that these estimates weren’t based on the post. Also, I really should’ve been more clear about the low likelihood of the really bad stuff.
Even now I would like it if you added an edit at the start to make it clearer what you’re doing! Before reading the replying comment and realising the context, I was mildly shocked by such potentially inflammatory speculation and downvoted.
I think the downvotes are coming because people don’t realize you’re doing the exercise at the start of the post, and rather think that you’re making these claims after having read the rest of the post. I don’t think you should lose karma for that, so I’m upvoting; but you may want to state at the top that’s what you’re doing.
Ex ante, it is obvious I should’ve mentioned that. But I just saw a bunch of comments making these guesses, and I thought my edit made it clear that these estimates weren’t based on the post. Also, I really should’ve been more clear about the low likelihood of the really bad stuff.
Even now I would like it if you added an edit at the start to make it clearer what you’re doing! Before reading the replying comment and realising the context, I was mildly shocked by such potentially inflammatory speculation and downvoted.