I don’t understand this—it reads to me like you’re saying a similar thing is true for the game and real life? But that goes against your position.
Sorry that was awkwardly worded. Here’s a simplified rephrase:
In games, bad guys want to act and look not the same. In real life, if you often agree with known bad folks, most think you’re not good.
Put in a different way, because of the structure of games like Avalon (it’s ~impossible for all the bad guys to not be found out, minions know who each other are, all minions just want their “team” to win so having sacrificial lambs make sense, etc), there are often equilibria where in even slightly advanced play, minions (bad guys) want to be seen as disagreeing with other minions earlier on. So if you find someone disagreeing with minions a lot (in voting history etc), especially in non-decision-relevant ways, this is not much evidence one way or another (and in some cases might even be negative evidence on your goodness). Similarly, if Mildred constantly speaks highly of you, and we later realize that Mildred is a minion, this shouldn’t be a negative update on you (and in some cases is a positive), because minions often have structural reasons to praise/bribe good guys. At higher levels obviously people become aware of this dynamic so there’s some anti-inductive play going on, but still. Frequently the structural incentives prevail.
In real life there’s a bit of this dynamic but the level one model (“birds of a feather flock together”) is more accurate, more of the time.
Sorry that was awkwardly worded. Here’s a simplified rephrase:
Put in a different way, because of the structure of games like Avalon (it’s ~impossible for all the bad guys to not be found out, minions know who each other are, all minions just want their “team” to win so having sacrificial lambs make sense, etc), there are often equilibria where in even slightly advanced play, minions (bad guys) want to be seen as disagreeing with other minions earlier on. So if you find someone disagreeing with minions a lot (in voting history etc), especially in non-decision-relevant ways, this is not much evidence one way or another (and in some cases might even be negative evidence on your goodness). Similarly, if Mildred constantly speaks highly of you, and we later realize that Mildred is a minion, this shouldn’t be a negative update on you (and in some cases is a positive), because minions often have structural reasons to praise/bribe good guys. At higher levels obviously people become aware of this dynamic so there’s some anti-inductive play going on, but still. Frequently the structural incentives prevail.
In real life there’s a bit of this dynamic but the level one model (“birds of a feather flock together”) is more accurate, more of the time.