I think what I’d expect to see in terms of stories of people being mistreated would be roughly the same. Because if they are mistreating people, evidence of that would likely be suppressed.
So I think where I’m coming from is moreso that various things, IMO, point towards the prior probability[1] of mistreatment being low in the first place.
(This is a fun opportunity to work on some Bayesian reasoning. Not to be insensitive about the context that it’s in. Please let me know if you/anyone has comments or advice. Maybe I’m missing something here.)
In the sense of, before opening your eyes and looking at what stories about Wave are out there, what would I expect the probability of there being bad things to be. Or something like that.
As an analogy, suppose you told me that Alice is a manager at Widget Corp. Then you tell me that she is a rationalist. Then you show me her blog, I read it, and I get good vibes. We can ask at this point what I think her probability of her mistreating employees and stuff being. And given what I know, I’d say that it’s very low. From there, you can say, “Ok, now go out and google stuff about Alice and Widget Corp. How do the results of googling shift your beliefs?” I think they probably wouldn’t shift my beliefs much, since regardless of whether she does bad stuff, if the information is being suppressed, I’m unlikely to observe it. But I can still think that the probability of bad stuff is low, despite the suppression.
I think what I’d expect to see in terms of stories of people being mistreated would be roughly the same. Because if they are mistreating people, evidence of that would likely be suppressed.
So I think where I’m coming from is moreso that various things, IMO, point towards the prior probability[1] of mistreatment being low in the first place.
(This is a fun opportunity to work on some Bayesian reasoning. Not to be insensitive about the context that it’s in. Please let me know if you/anyone has comments or advice. Maybe I’m missing something here.)
In the sense of, before opening your eyes and looking at what stories about Wave are out there, what would I expect the probability of there being bad things to be. Or something like that.
As an analogy, suppose you told me that Alice is a manager at Widget Corp. Then you tell me that she is a rationalist. Then you show me her blog, I read it, and I get good vibes. We can ask at this point what I think her probability of her mistreating employees and stuff being. And given what I know, I’d say that it’s very low. From there, you can say, “Ok, now go out and google stuff about Alice and Widget Corp. How do the results of googling shift your beliefs?” I think they probably wouldn’t shift my beliefs much, since regardless of whether she does bad stuff, if the information is being suppressed, I’m unlikely to observe it. But I can still think that the probability of bad stuff is low, despite the suppression.