I’d say I agree with just about all of that, and I’m glad to see it laid out so clearly!
I just also wouldn’t be hugely surprised if it turns out something like designing and building remote-controllable self-replicating globally-deployable nanotech (as one example) is in some sense fundamentally “easy” for even an early ASI/modestly superhuman AGI. Say that’s the case, and we build a few for the ASI, and then we distribute them across the world, in a matter of weeks. They do what controlled self-replicating nanobots do. Then after a few months the ASI already has an off switch or sleep mode button buried in everyone’s brain. My guess is that then none of those hard steps of a war with China come into play.
To be clear, I don’t think this story is likely. But in a broad sense, I am generally of the opinion that most people greatly overestimate how much new data we need to answer new questions or create (some kinds of) new things, and underestimate what can be done with clever use of existing data, even among humans, let alone as we approach the limits of cleverness.
I’d say I agree with just about all of that, and I’m glad to see it laid out so clearly!
I just also wouldn’t be hugely surprised if it turns out something like designing and building remote-controllable self-replicating globally-deployable nanotech (as one example) is in some sense fundamentally “easy” for even an early ASI/modestly superhuman AGI. Say that’s the case, and we build a few for the ASI, and then we distribute them across the world, in a matter of weeks. They do what controlled self-replicating nanobots do. Then after a few months the ASI already has an off switch or sleep mode button buried in everyone’s brain. My guess is that then none of those hard steps of a war with China come into play.
To be clear, I don’t think this story is likely. But in a broad sense, I am generally of the opinion that most people greatly overestimate how much new data we need to answer new questions or create (some kinds of) new things, and underestimate what can be done with clever use of existing data, even among humans, let alone as we approach the limits of cleverness.