What is your estimate of the Metaculus question “Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?” It sounds like it is much lower than the community prediction of 55%. Do you think this is because the community has significant probability mass on CAIS, ems, or Paul-like scenarios? What probability mass do you put on those (and are there others)?
What is your estimate of the Metaculus question “Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?” It sounds like it is much lower than the community prediction of 55%. Do you think this is because the community has significant probability mass on CAIS, ems, or Paul-like scenarios? What probability mass do you put on those (and are there others)?