Still, with that kind of games, there’s extreme oversupply of all sorts of designs. Here’s this issue: one needs very carefully controlled trials to select the best of the alternatives. Market does not do this. There isn’t a magical mechanism that turns the best of competitors most profitable. Competition among too many products is a lottery. When you make something that everyone else can make—do research before you just conclude nobody’s doing this, you’ll see a lot of people are actually trying to do it. Minecraft made a lot of money, right. Was it original and unique—hell no, a lot of other voxel editors existed before Minecraft.
You can’t outthink others by two steps of second guessing—“okay, everyone can do this, so everyone thinks so, so nobody will do it, so I will do it, and be the only one”. Plenty of people follow that line of reasoning as well. If you want high probability of significant return i would recommend looking for something that other people can not do—find your superpower, use it. If you have people-prediction-superpower, sure, you can make the next minecraft. But rationality is probably not your unique superpower (or not the one that’d help a lot for predicting others). There’s people who don’t for a second have a trouble for e.g. mony hall problem, and whose Bayesian reasoning is almost inborn. They just got lucky this way (edit: and they may actually be fairly bad at predicting other people because they don’t understand other people’s reasoning very well). The ability to program well looks much more like your unique superpower, at one in thousands level or better.
Still, with that kind of games, there’s extreme oversupply of all sorts of designs. Here’s this issue: one needs very carefully controlled trials to select the best of the alternatives. Market does not do this. There isn’t a magical mechanism that turns the best of competitors most profitable. Competition among too many products is a lottery. When you make something that everyone else can make—do research before you just conclude nobody’s doing this, you’ll see a lot of people are actually trying to do it. Minecraft made a lot of money, right. Was it original and unique—hell no, a lot of other voxel editors existed before Minecraft.
You can’t outthink others by two steps of second guessing—“okay, everyone can do this, so everyone thinks so, so nobody will do it, so I will do it, and be the only one”. Plenty of people follow that line of reasoning as well. If you want high probability of significant return i would recommend looking for something that other people can not do—find your superpower, use it. If you have people-prediction-superpower, sure, you can make the next minecraft. But rationality is probably not your unique superpower (or not the one that’d help a lot for predicting others). There’s people who don’t for a second have a trouble for e.g. mony hall problem, and whose Bayesian reasoning is almost inborn. They just got lucky this way (edit: and they may actually be fairly bad at predicting other people because they don’t understand other people’s reasoning very well). The ability to program well looks much more like your unique superpower, at one in thousands level or better.