why do you think reversible computers are more than a decade out?
Reversible computers don’t seem much easier than quantum computers for some of the reasons explained here, and maintaining near zero temp doesn’t really seem practical at scale—at least not on earth.
I think the roodman model is the current best predictive model of the near future. It predicts hard singularity in 2047, but growth is hyperexponential and doesn’t really start getting wierd until later this decade, and it doesn’t even require neuromorphic computing until the 2030′s perhaps, and exotic computing and everything after all happens right near the end.
Reversible computers don’t seem much easier than quantum computers for some of the reasons explained here, and maintaining near zero temp doesn’t really seem practical at scale—at least not on earth.
I think the roodman model is the current best predictive model of the near future. It predicts hard singularity in 2047, but growth is hyperexponential and doesn’t really start getting wierd until later this decade, and it doesn’t even require neuromorphic computing until the 2030′s perhaps, and exotic computing and everything after all happens right near the end.