Is there any particular reason to think that Putin is likely to try invading the Baltics? Let alone attempting to forcefully recreate the Warsaw pact with invading Poland/Czechia/Hungary?
I mean certainly, if Putin decides that WW3 is worth grabbing EU members back, it could happen. And there is always a tiny chance that he will think the West won’t fight over the Baltics, while the West actually will—but this seems to me to be a really low probability thing, and more importantly, what is happening in Ukraine tells us very little about whether that will happen.
To be clear: The Western governments told Putin, in every possible non-explicit and explicit way, that they would do nothing to physically try to stop him from taking Ukraine, but that they would attempt to harm his country through economic mechanisms. Putin did not do a Hitler like gamble of risking a world war, Putin knew with certainty that the only military force he would be fighting was Ukranian.
This is not evidence that he is willing to risk nuclear war, or actually try invading NATO members in hopes that NATO doesn’t defend them. He might be—but your estimate on that should be roughly the same today as it was yesterday.
but your estimate on that should be roughly the same today as it was yesterday
I just don’t know about any of this stuff, so the update was “Oh Putin has boots on the ground to take territory, maybe he has ambitious goals”. The loose analogy would be to the Anschluss of Austria (forbidden by Versailles, but IIUC Austria wasn’t allied with Britain or France), with the Baltic states being analogous to Czechoslovakia (which was allies with France, but which was more or less abandoned to Hitler). (This is maybe/probably a terrible analogy, e.g. because NATO will be more solid, but I’m just ignorant.) Do you think Putin has very ambitious goals?
...with the Baltic states being analogous to Czechoslovakia (which was allies with France, but which was more or less abandoned to Hitler)
I think a key difference is the presence of NATO troops in the Baltic states (NATO Enhanced Forward Presence, Baltic Air Policing). Militarily, those are only a tripwire, but killing US pilots in an attack on the Baltic states seems to me a very dangerous move.
If France and England had had garrisons in Czechoslovakia, then 1938 could have played out quite differently.
On Monday (21st) Putin stated, in the translation on the Kremlin website, that the setting up of the Union Republics of the USSR in 1922 (which included the three Baltic states) involved transferring the territory and “the population of what was historically Russia” to the new states. He described the principles used as “not just a mistake; they were worse than a mistake”, and as “odious and utopian fantasies”. He lamented “the collapse of the historical Russia known as the USSR”. He does go onto discussing Ukraine specifically, but on the basis of that speech he thinks that the Baltic states should still be part of Russia. I understand he has said similar things previously, though I haven’t read them myself. Still some way off stating that he will invade a NATO country, but not exactly ideal, particularly given what’s happened to other countries that Putin thinks should still be part of Russia.
Interesting reading Monday’s speech how much detail he goes into about how badly Ukraine is doing economically—feels a lot like projection, with the ghosts of Russia’s own poor economic performance and the significantly better relative performance of the Eastern European EU states hovering in the background. Easy to imagine him obsessing about the Polish growth miracle as compared to his failure to create a Russian economy that isn’t dependent on exporting natural resources.
...that the setting up of the Union Republics of the USSR in 1922 (which included the three Baltic states) involved transferring the territory and “the population of what was historically Russia” to the new states.
The setting up of the SU in 1922 did not include the Baltic states—these were independent states from 1918 until 1940 (and I don’t think that in Monday’s speech Putin contradicted that).
Nevertheless, I am quite confident that Putin could come up with historical arguments for invading the Baltic states, too. E.g., that the Baltic states were part of Russia for more than a century and had gotten their independence primarily from the German occupation forces at the end of WW I.
Is there any particular reason to think that Putin is likely to try invading the Baltics? Let alone attempting to forcefully recreate the Warsaw pact with invading Poland/Czechia/Hungary?
I mean certainly, if Putin decides that WW3 is worth grabbing EU members back, it could happen. And there is always a tiny chance that he will think the West won’t fight over the Baltics, while the West actually will—but this seems to me to be a really low probability thing, and more importantly, what is happening in Ukraine tells us very little about whether that will happen.
To be clear: The Western governments told Putin, in every possible non-explicit and explicit way, that they would do nothing to physically try to stop him from taking Ukraine, but that they would attempt to harm his country through economic mechanisms. Putin did not do a Hitler like gamble of risking a world war, Putin knew with certainty that the only military force he would be fighting was Ukranian.
This is not evidence that he is willing to risk nuclear war, or actually try invading NATO members in hopes that NATO doesn’t defend them. He might be—but your estimate on that should be roughly the same today as it was yesterday.
Thanks.
I just don’t know about any of this stuff, so the update was “Oh Putin has boots on the ground to take territory, maybe he has ambitious goals”. The loose analogy would be to the Anschluss of Austria (forbidden by Versailles, but IIUC Austria wasn’t allied with Britain or France), with the Baltic states being analogous to Czechoslovakia (which was allies with France, but which was more or less abandoned to Hitler). (This is maybe/probably a terrible analogy, e.g. because NATO will be more solid, but I’m just ignorant.) Do you think Putin has very ambitious goals?
I think a key difference is the presence of NATO troops in the Baltic states (NATO Enhanced Forward Presence, Baltic Air Policing). Militarily, those are only a tripwire, but killing US pilots in an attack on the Baltic states seems to me a very dangerous move.
If France and England had had garrisons in Czechoslovakia, then 1938 could have played out quite differently.
Good point.
On Monday (21st) Putin stated, in the translation on the Kremlin website, that the setting up of the Union Republics of the USSR in 1922 (which included the three Baltic states) involved transferring the territory and “the population of what was historically Russia” to the new states. He described the principles used as “not just a mistake; they were worse than a mistake”, and as “odious and utopian fantasies”. He lamented “the collapse of the historical Russia known as the USSR”. He does go onto discussing Ukraine specifically, but on the basis of that speech he thinks that the Baltic states should still be part of Russia. I understand he has said similar things previously, though I haven’t read them myself. Still some way off stating that he will invade a NATO country, but not exactly ideal, particularly given what’s happened to other countries that Putin thinks should still be part of Russia.
Interesting reading Monday’s speech how much detail he goes into about how badly Ukraine is doing economically—feels a lot like projection, with the ghosts of Russia’s own poor economic performance and the significantly better relative performance of the Eastern European EU states hovering in the background. Easy to imagine him obsessing about the Polish growth miracle as compared to his failure to create a Russian economy that isn’t dependent on exporting natural resources.
The setting up of the SU in 1922 did not include the Baltic states—these were independent states from 1918 until 1940 (and I don’t think that in Monday’s speech Putin contradicted that).
Parties to the Treaty on the Creation of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in 1922 were only:
- Russian SFSR
- Ukrainian SSR
- Byelorussian SSR
- Transcaucasian SFSR
Ah, thank you! I was completely wrong, ignore me
Nevertheless, I am quite confident that Putin could come up with historical arguments for invading the Baltic states, too. E.g., that the Baltic states were part of Russia for more than a century and had gotten their independence primarily from the German occupation forces at the end of WW I.