Welp, I was wrong: the Feb 11 shows a 45% likely invasion before 2023, which is not consistent with the won’t-invade scenario I proposed.
It is consistent with a moderate expectation of another Crimea level event, but not a full-scale invasion. Do we have a way of determining if the same participants are betting across multiple of these questions, or if the answerers are mostly unique?
Welp, I was wrong: the Feb 11 shows a 45% likely invasion before 2023, which is not consistent with the won’t-invade scenario I proposed.
It is consistent with a moderate expectation of another Crimea level event, but not a full-scale invasion. Do we have a way of determining if the same participants are betting across multiple of these questions, or if the answerers are mostly unique?