Almost 2 years to the day since we had an effective test run for X risks, we encounter a fairly significant global X risk factor.
As Harari said, it’s time to revise upward your estimates of the likelihood of every X risk scenario (that could take place over the next 30 years or so) if you assumed a ‘normal’ level of international tension between major powers, rather than a level more like the cold war. Especially for Nuclear and Bio, but also for AI if you assume slow takeoff, this is significant.
Almost 2 years to the day since we had an effective test run for X risks, we encounter a fairly significant global X risk factor.
As Harari said, it’s time to revise upward your estimates of the likelihood of every X risk scenario (that could take place over the next 30 years or so) if you assumed a ‘normal’ level of international tension between major powers, rather than a level more like the cold war. Especially for Nuclear and Bio, but also for AI if you assume slow takeoff, this is significant.