The official news here in Germany keep reporting that the government has announced/will announced ‘substantial sanctions’, but as of now, the proposed SWIFT-exclusion is met with resistance.
The oil and gas prices already skyrocketed over the past months, and the newly finished Nord Stream 2 (under the north sea, was planned to transport gas from Russia to Germany), was announced to be… delayed for “an unforeseeable amount of time”. If gas supply over here is restricted any more, it will be an economical disaster, as a lot of the imported gas is used for industry and to generate power.
As of now, I’m quite convinced that the EU—but Germany especially—literally can’t afford any more severe actions against Russia as of now.
Well, what one can “afford” is really a matter of circumstances and will as I’m sure Chamberlain would have argued that Britain couldn’t “afford” to offend Hitler by offering help to Czechoslovakia at the time, either. And yet just a couple years later Britain was suddenly able to “afford” to wage an all-out war against Germany while London was still burning.
The point here isn’t moral grandstanding. The point is there’s a need to re-evaluate assumptions about the invincibility of Germany’s security status as a NATO member. Nobody expected NATO troops on Ukrainian soil, but if Germans aren’t willing to risk as much as higher gas prices and a few pipelines here and there when tanks are literally rolling down the streets of Kiev, what exactly makes them think the US and UK would risk a nuclear war with Russia when tanks are rolling down the streets of Berlin? And it’s not like they’re willing to increase their own military spending either. The way I see it, right now Germany is mostly defended by thoughts and prayers and a whole lot of “they would never do that”. Not a predicament I’d want to be in considering “they would never do that” seems to fail awfully often nowadays.
I don’t blame Scholz for the stance he’s taking though, if anything it’s a reflection of German public opinion: too preoccupied with bickering about Covid restrictions and shutting down coal mines. These days it seems like Germans would rather start speaking Russian than turn their nuclear power plants back on.
I wonder if we’re living through a weird kind of secular cycle. One not defined by Malthusian scarcity, but by an overabundance of safety and luxury. One where people of rich countries become so feeble that not only are they unwilling to fight for freedom, they won’t even accept a temporary decline in living standards for it. Until civilization collapses, at which point it makes sense to pick up arms again because their lives and livelihoods by then will be in danger regardless of whether they resist or not.
I think one has to look at what one can “afford” on different time scales. The answer can be quite different in the short run than with more time.
Of course, technically you are right. Germany could afford harsh sanctions against Russia even in the short term, in the sense that it will not be the end of Germany. However, living in Germany, I like to have electricity. And in winter I do like to have heating, too (the building I am living in is heated with natural gas—gas has a market share for heating of 48% in Germany, and district heating 14%, from which 42% are produced by gas, too). It is not only about “higher gas prices”—without Russian gas (and Russian coal) it is questionable if there will be enough energy available for electricity production and heating.
So, the main problem from my perspective isn’t the short term reluctance to risk Germany’s energy supply. The problem is that Germany has allowed itself to be dependent on such a highly unreliable energy source as Russia. And that one hasn’t invested in at least the option to use alternative sources, e.g., building a LNG terminal to be able to import gas from other sources (US, Qatar) - I believe mostly due to ideological reasons (gas is “bad” because it is a fossile fuel). And less than two months ago three additional nuclear power plants were shut down on schedule while the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was heating up.
When it comes to defense spending I believe there are different reasons for Germany’s unwillingness to do more: One factor is a highly naive reliance on an idealistic theory of foreign relations (that morality and international law trump national interests). Another factor is that it has worked in the past—during the cold war there was constant complaining by the US that the European countries should do more to defend themselves. Then there is the feeling that the threat to Germany is much less than during the cold war, Putin’s Russia is not seen as having aspirations to conquer Germany or all of Europe—quite different from the universalistic ideology of communism or from Hitler’s territorial aims (and I believe that assessment is actually somewhat correct—for Russia a neutral Germany would be more beneficial than a Germany under Russian rule—as with Sweden’s neutrality for Germany during WWII ). And, as a result of two lost world wars, Germany has become deeply pacifistic. All those reasons have led to a motivated blindness towards Putin’s aims and actions. I am quite curious whether this will change now (but I somehow doubt it).
That’s an excellent point, and I have to admit that I’m also a victim to the Germany-is-safe-the-West-will-defend-us-Putin-can’t-be-that-insane mindset. It’s kind of horrifying that you’re right about the defensive state… the more I think about it, the more it becomes obvious how much the public, including me, is still in denial about how important this war is and how dependant Germany would be on the NATO for any defenses at all.
I genuinely don’t understand why the government hasn’t already done pretty much everything they can to erase the dependance on Russian energy like, two days ago.
This oh-they-won’t-hurt-us mindset might really be a result of being used to wealth and safety over here. Incredibly few people seem to actually believe that Germany could be in direct danger. At this point, i’ve definitely had the tought of packing my bags and convincing my family to leave the country as soon asthere are any signs that it doesn’t stop with the Ukraine, but it’s still an ugh-thought that seems so far away.
Well, technically speaking, Germany is safe, at the moment. There are still a few countries between Germany and the Russia-owned places. If Germany keeps its cavalier attitude, USA is still happy to help them (for now; another president may change the policy). Or maybe those countries will succeed to defend themselves; if Finland resisted the Soviet Union successfully in 1940, maybe Poland will do the same in 2030… assuming that Russia will not use the nukes. Even if they fall, they can still buy Germany a few decades; and who knows, maybe a few decades latter Russia will have a different problem, perhaps a war with China, or a revolution, or maybe the artificial intelligence will kill us all.
However, Germany seems to change its mind, and will provide some actual help (source).
I’m inclined to agree on this.
The official news here in Germany keep reporting that the government has announced/will announced ‘substantial sanctions’, but as of now, the proposed SWIFT-exclusion is met with resistance.
The oil and gas prices already skyrocketed over the past months, and the newly finished Nord Stream 2 (under the north sea, was planned to transport gas from Russia to Germany), was announced to be… delayed for “an unforeseeable amount of time”. If gas supply over here is restricted any more, it will be an economical disaster, as a lot of the imported gas is used for industry and to generate power.
As of now, I’m quite convinced that the EU—but Germany especially—literally can’t afford any more severe actions against Russia as of now.
Well, what one can “afford” is really a matter of circumstances and will as I’m sure Chamberlain would have argued that Britain couldn’t “afford” to offend Hitler by offering help to Czechoslovakia at the time, either. And yet just a couple years later Britain was suddenly able to “afford” to wage an all-out war against Germany while London was still burning.
The point here isn’t moral grandstanding. The point is there’s a need to re-evaluate assumptions about the invincibility of Germany’s security status as a NATO member. Nobody expected NATO troops on Ukrainian soil, but if Germans aren’t willing to risk as much as higher gas prices and a few pipelines here and there when tanks are literally rolling down the streets of Kiev, what exactly makes them think the US and UK would risk a nuclear war with Russia when tanks are rolling down the streets of Berlin? And it’s not like they’re willing to increase their own military spending either. The way I see it, right now Germany is mostly defended by thoughts and prayers and a whole lot of “they would never do that”. Not a predicament I’d want to be in considering “they would never do that” seems to fail awfully often nowadays.
I don’t blame Scholz for the stance he’s taking though, if anything it’s a reflection of German public opinion: too preoccupied with bickering about Covid restrictions and shutting down coal mines. These days it seems like Germans would rather start speaking Russian than turn their nuclear power plants back on.
I wonder if we’re living through a weird kind of secular cycle. One not defined by Malthusian scarcity, but by an overabundance of safety and luxury. One where people of rich countries become so feeble that not only are they unwilling to fight for freedom, they won’t even accept a temporary decline in living standards for it. Until civilization collapses, at which point it makes sense to pick up arms again because their lives and livelihoods by then will be in danger regardless of whether they resist or not.
I think one has to look at what one can “afford” on different time scales. The answer can be quite different in the short run than with more time.
Of course, technically you are right. Germany could afford harsh sanctions against Russia even in the short term, in the sense that it will not be the end of Germany. However, living in Germany, I like to have electricity. And in winter I do like to have heating, too (the building I am living in is heated with natural gas—gas has a market share for heating of 48% in Germany, and district heating 14%, from which 42% are produced by gas, too). It is not only about “higher gas prices”—without Russian gas (and Russian coal) it is questionable if there will be enough energy available for electricity production and heating.
So, the main problem from my perspective isn’t the short term reluctance to risk Germany’s energy supply. The problem is that Germany has allowed itself to be dependent on such a highly unreliable energy source as Russia. And that one hasn’t invested in at least the option to use alternative sources, e.g., building a LNG terminal to be able to import gas from other sources (US, Qatar) - I believe mostly due to ideological reasons (gas is “bad” because it is a fossile fuel). And less than two months ago three additional nuclear power plants were shut down on schedule while the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was heating up.
When it comes to defense spending I believe there are different reasons for Germany’s unwillingness to do more: One factor is a highly naive reliance on an idealistic theory of foreign relations (that morality and international law trump national interests). Another factor is that it has worked in the past—during the cold war there was constant complaining by the US that the European countries should do more to defend themselves. Then there is the feeling that the threat to Germany is much less than during the cold war, Putin’s Russia is not seen as having aspirations to conquer Germany or all of Europe—quite different from the universalistic ideology of communism or from Hitler’s territorial aims (and I believe that assessment is actually somewhat correct—for Russia a neutral Germany would be more beneficial than a Germany under Russian rule—as with Sweden’s neutrality for Germany during WWII ). And, as a result of two lost world wars, Germany has become deeply pacifistic. All those reasons have led to a motivated blindness towards Putin’s aims and actions. I am quite curious whether this will change now (but I somehow doubt it).
That’s an excellent point, and I have to admit that I’m also a victim to the Germany-is-safe-the-West-will-defend-us-Putin-can’t-be-that-insane mindset. It’s kind of horrifying that you’re right about the defensive state… the more I think about it, the more it becomes obvious how much the public, including me, is still in denial about how important this war is and how dependant Germany would be on the NATO for any defenses at all.
I genuinely don’t understand why the government hasn’t already done pretty much everything they can to erase the dependance on Russian energy like, two days ago.
This oh-they-won’t-hurt-us mindset might really be a result of being used to wealth and safety over here. Incredibly few people seem to actually believe that Germany could be in direct danger. At this point, i’ve definitely had the tought of packing my bags and convincing my family to leave the country as soon asthere are any signs that it doesn’t stop with the Ukraine, but it’s still an ugh-thought that seems so far away.
Well, technically speaking, Germany is safe, at the moment. There are still a few countries between Germany and the Russia-owned places. If Germany keeps its cavalier attitude, USA is still happy to help them (for now; another president may change the policy). Or maybe those countries will succeed to defend themselves; if Finland resisted the Soviet Union successfully in 1940, maybe Poland will do the same in 2030… assuming that Russia will not use the nukes. Even if they fall, they can still buy Germany a few decades; and who knows, maybe a few decades latter Russia will have a different problem, perhaps a war with China, or a revolution, or maybe the artificial intelligence will kill us all.
However, Germany seems to change its mind, and will provide some actual help (source).