How can we expect well-calibrated markets on questions with so few events? It appears to me there is a ceiling on how good we can expect calibration to be here, and it is much lower than the average Metaculus question.
Of course, reflecting on this suggests to me we should be able to take a serious crack at the answer after this one, with more to follow afterward.
How can we expect well-calibrated markets on questions with so few events? It appears to me there is a ceiling on how good we can expect calibration to be here, and it is much lower than the average Metaculus question.
Of course, reflecting on this suggests to me we should be able to take a serious crack at the answer after this one, with more to follow afterward.