“The Incorrect Resolution hypothesis rings false because, while there’s some chance of an incorrect resolution, it’s really unlikely to be as high as 3%.” It was indeed at least 5% of incorrect resolutions during my experience on polymarket.
https://www.trustpilot.com/review/polymarket.com They have already lost their reputation. The decisive majority of UMA tokens is held by 4-5 wallets, which makes it even more centralised system, than private companies’ boards. And nothing stops whale wallets from participating in markets, and then participating in resolving the question. In addition to that UMA system pays out for unanimity: if you are a small UMA holder and you know/ can guess the whales’ sentiment, you benefit from voting the same as them, not for the true option.
From the top of my head, they resolved to Yes a market “will trump issue a token” prematurely based on him talking (making advertisement?) about some irrelevant cryptocurrency. (Premature resolutions lead to unfair flow of money and quicker unlock from the market). Another case of misresolution: they treated Israel-Lebanon negotiations as a peace treaty between Israel-Hezbolla.
“The Incorrect Resolution hypothesis rings false because, while there’s some chance of an incorrect resolution, it’s really unlikely to be as high as 3%.” It was indeed at least 5% of incorrect resolutions during my experience on polymarket.
https://www.trustpilot.com/review/polymarket.com They have already lost their reputation. The decisive majority of UMA tokens is held by 4-5 wallets, which makes it even more centralised system, than private companies’ boards. And nothing stops whale wallets from participating in markets, and then participating in resolving the question. In addition to that UMA system pays out for unanimity: if you are a small UMA holder and you know/ can guess the whales’ sentiment, you benefit from voting the same as them, not for the true option.
From the top of my head, they resolved to Yes a market “will trump issue a token” prematurely based on him talking (making advertisement?) about some irrelevant cryptocurrency. (Premature resolutions lead to unfair flow of money and quicker unlock from the market). Another case of misresolution: they treated Israel-Lebanon negotiations as a peace treaty between Israel-Hezbolla.
Oh, UMA could totally mis-resolve this one. But my contention is that Polymarket would overrule such a resolution.