These false resolutions didn’t happen because Polymarket overrode its consensus-based resoluton mechanism, but because that mechanism itself is susceptible to large stakeholder manipulation plus voter misinformation campaigns. As for Polymarket having a lot of reputation to lose, yeah it does. And it has been losing it. I doubt that the specific market mentioned would become a target for a false resolution, it would be too brazen to attempt such a scam there. However, the fact that such a thing is possible, makes any investment in the platform orders of magnitude more risky than buying a bond of a western country, and the 3% return is just not worth it when said bond would provide a similar return.
Maybe not super relevant to this discussion but multi million dollar markets have been getting incorrectly resolved on Polymarket on a routine basis. There was one market about a Ukraine minerals deal that resolved to YES even though no minerals deal happened:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-faces-backlash-7m-ukraine-010306627.html
https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/1905258165777596812
These false resolutions didn’t happen because Polymarket overrode its consensus-based resoluton mechanism, but because that mechanism itself is susceptible to large stakeholder manipulation plus voter misinformation campaigns. As for Polymarket having a lot of reputation to lose, yeah it does. And it has been losing it. I doubt that the specific market mentioned would become a target for a false resolution, it would be too brazen to attempt such a scam there. However, the fact that such a thing is possible, makes any investment in the platform orders of magnitude more risky than buying a bond of a western country, and the 3% return is just not worth it when said bond would provide a similar return.