The Incorrect Resolution hypothesis rings false because, while there’s some chance of an incorrect resolution, it’s really unlikely to be as high as 3%. Polymarket has a lot of reputation to lose by incorrectly resolving this market, and would almost certainly override its consensus-based resolution mechanism if it came to that.
I think historically UMA oracle token holder profiteers have misresolved some markets without Polymarket overriding.
I would guess profiteers would focus on markets with more liquidity. I would guess that the base rate so far has been much less than 3%, but maybe there are lots of resolved markets with lower trading volume (‘Will Jesus Christ...’ has $400K in volume). It does seem like it would be unusually bad for Polymarket if this particular market was misresolved.
It seems not impossible to me for many markets to be misresolved by UMA in one big attack, but I don’t know how UMA and Polymarket work.
I think historically UMA oracle token holder profiteers have misresolved some markets without Polymarket overriding.
I would guess profiteers would focus on markets with more liquidity. I would guess that the base rate so far has been much less than 3%, but maybe there are lots of resolved markets with lower trading volume (‘Will Jesus Christ...’ has $400K in volume). It does seem like it would be unusually bad for Polymarket if this particular market was misresolved.
It seems not impossible to me for many markets to be misresolved by UMA in one big attack, but I don’t know how UMA and Polymarket work.