I don’t know the details about the American voting system, but (or maybe therefore) I am surprised how low estimates all people give to the possibility that the result is genuine. My estimate (without much research, I’ve just read the links) is
0.5 voters actually voted for Greene
0.3 error of some kind
0.2 conspiracy
In order to update, any evidence is accepted, of course. What I would most like to see: results of some statistical survey, conducted either before or better after the election, historical data concerning performance of black candidates, historical data from elections with big difference between the intensity of the campaign between the competing candidates, a lot of independent testimonies of trustworthy voters reporting non-standard behaviour of the voting machines, description of how can the results be altered (and what is normally done to avoid that).
* 0.6 voters actually voted for Greene
* >0.3 error of some kind
* <0.1 conspiracy
Conspiracy is a really stupid claim for this result—it is an incredibly unimportant election. If someone was going to purposely jigger the results of an election, they would do it where it actually mattered. The only reason it is still on there is that people sometimes do do really stupid things (as opposed to normally stupid things that they do all the time).
I don’t know the details about the American voting system, but (or maybe therefore) I am surprised how low estimates all people give to the possibility that the result is genuine. My estimate (without much research, I’ve just read the links) is
0.5 voters actually voted for Greene
0.3 error of some kind
0.2 conspiracy
In order to update, any evidence is accepted, of course. What I would most like to see: results of some statistical survey, conducted either before or better after the election, historical data concerning performance of black candidates, historical data from elections with big difference between the intensity of the campaign between the competing candidates, a lot of independent testimonies of trustworthy voters reporting non-standard behaviour of the voting machines, description of how can the results be altered (and what is normally done to avoid that).
I would say
Conspiracy is a really stupid claim for this result—it is an incredibly unimportant election. If someone was going to purposely jigger the results of an election, they would do it where it actually mattered. The only reason it is still on there is that people sometimes do do really stupid things (as opposed to normally stupid things that they do all the time).