Another case that I unfortunately don’t know of a good writeup of is:
I think that AI 2027 thinks this: supposing we get to SAR and stop scaling compute, it would take the human research community median years to get to ASI (like, with software alone); they conclude median takeoff time >1 year by a calculation from this param. If one takes the human time to instead be <1 year or <10 years and propagates that through their model, my guess is that one will get SAR to ASI takeoff in at most a few months, but I haven’t thought this through carefully.
though I wish they focused more on [the time to get from AIs being better than top researchers at most research projects to nanobots], and less on econ params
I’d suggest that you consider adding at least one case for faster takeoff to your reading list. Some options:
Yudkowsky & Christiano dialogue on takeoff speeds [1]
Byrnes’s Foom & Doom
Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics
Another case that I unfortunately don’t know of a good writeup of is:
I think that AI 2027 thinks this: supposing we get to SAR and stop scaling compute, it would take the human research community median
though I wish they focused more on [the time to get from AIs being better than top researchers at most research projects to nanobots], and less on econ params