Work out your prior on being an exception to natural law in that way. Pick a number of rounds such that the chance of you winning by luck is even smaller. You currently think that the most likely way for you to be in that situation is if you were an exception.
What if the game didn’t kill you, it just made you sick? Would your reasoning still hold? There is no hard and sharp boundary between life and death.
Hm. I think your reason here is more or less “because our current formalisms say so”. Which is fair enough, but I don’t think it gives me an additional reason—I already have my intuition despite knowing it contradicts them.
What if the game didn’t kill you, it just made you sick? Would your reasoning still hold?
No. The relevant gradual version here is forgetting rather than sickness. But yes, I agree there is an embedding question here.
Work out your prior on being an exception to natural law in that way. Pick a number of rounds such that the chance of you winning by luck is even smaller. You currently think that the most likely way for you to be in that situation is if you were an exception.
What if the game didn’t kill you, it just made you sick? Would your reasoning still hold? There is no hard and sharp boundary between life and death.
Hm. I think your reason here is more or less “because our current formalisms say so”. Which is fair enough, but I don’t think it gives me an additional reason—I already have my intuition despite knowing it contradicts them.
No. The relevant gradual version here is forgetting rather than sickness. But yes, I agree there is an embedding question here.