Your going to have some prior on “this is safer for me, but not totally save, it actually has a 1/1000 chance of killing me.” This seems no less reasonable than the no chance of killing you prior.
If you’ve survived often enough, this can go arbitrarily close to 0.
I think that playing this game is the right move
Why? It seems to me like I have to pick between the theories “I am an exception to natural law, but only in ways that could also be produced by the anthropic effect” and “Its just the anthropic effect”. The latter seems obviously more reasonable to me, and it implies I’ll die if I play.
Work out your prior on being an exception to natural law in that way. Pick a number of rounds such that the chance of you winning by luck is even smaller. You currently think that the most likely way for you to be in that situation is if you were an exception.
What if the game didn’t kill you, it just made you sick? Would your reasoning still hold? There is no hard and sharp boundary between life and death.
Hm. I think your reason here is more or less “because our current formalisms say so”. Which is fair enough, but I don’t think it gives me an additional reason—I already have my intuition despite knowing it contradicts them.
What if the game didn’t kill you, it just made you sick? Would your reasoning still hold?
No. The relevant gradual version here is forgetting rather than sickness. But yes, I agree there is an embedding question here.
If you’ve survived often enough, this can go arbitrarily close to 0.
Why? It seems to me like I have to pick between the theories “I am an exception to natural law, but only in ways that could also be produced by the anthropic effect” and “Its just the anthropic effect”. The latter seems obviously more reasonable to me, and it implies I’ll die if I play.
Work out your prior on being an exception to natural law in that way. Pick a number of rounds such that the chance of you winning by luck is even smaller. You currently think that the most likely way for you to be in that situation is if you were an exception.
What if the game didn’t kill you, it just made you sick? Would your reasoning still hold? There is no hard and sharp boundary between life and death.
Hm. I think your reason here is more or less “because our current formalisms say so”. Which is fair enough, but I don’t think it gives me an additional reason—I already have my intuition despite knowing it contradicts them.
No. The relevant gradual version here is forgetting rather than sickness. But yes, I agree there is an embedding question here.