Unless there are on order of $2^KolmogorovComplexity(Universe)$ universes, the chance of it being constructed randomly is exceedingly low.
An extremely low probability of the observation under some theory is not itself evidence. It’s extremely unlikely that the I would randomly come up with the number 0.0135814709894468, and yet I did.
It’s only interesting if there is some other possibility that assigns a different probability to that outcome.
I can’t assign any remarkable property to the number you came up with, not even the fact that I came up with it myself earlier (I didn’t). So of course I’m not surprised that you came up with it.
Our universe, on the other hand, supports sentient life. That’s quite a remarkable property, which presumably spans only a tiny fraction of all “possible universes” (whatever that means). Then, under the assumption our universe is the only one, and was created randomly, then we’re incredibly lucky to exist at all. So, there is a good deal of improbability to explain. And God just sounds perfect.
Worse, I actually think God is a pretty good explanation until you know about evolution. And Newton, to hint at the universality of simple laws of physics. And probably more, since we still don’t know for instance how intelligence and conciousness actually work —though we do have strong hints. And multiverses, and anthropic reasoning and…
Alas, those are long-winded arguments. I think the outside view is more accessible: technology accomplishes more and more impressive miracles, and it doesn’t run on God (it’s all about mechanisms, not phlebotinum). But I don’t feel this is the strongest argument, and I wouldn’t try to present it as knock down.
Now, if I actually argue with a theist, I won’t start by those. First, I’ll try to agree on something. Most likely, non-contradiction and excluded middle. Either there is a God, or there is none, and either way, one of us is mistaken. If we can’t agree with even that (happens with some agnostics), I just give up. (No, wait, I don’t.)
Make sure everyone accept the non-contradiction principle and mark the ones that don’t as “beyond therapy” (or patiently explain that “truth” business to them).
Make sure everyone use the same definitions for the subject at hand.
My limited experience tells me that most theists will readily accept point one, believing that there is a God, and I’m mistaken to believe otherwise. I praise them for their coherence, then move on to what we actually mean by “God” and such.
EDIT: I may need to be more explicit: I think the non-contradiction principle is more fundamental than the possible existence of a God, and as such should be settled first. Settling the definition for any particular question always come second. It only seems to come first in most discussions because the non-contradiction principle is generally common knowledge.
Also, I do accept there is a good chance the theist and I do not put the same meanings under the same words. It’s just simpler to assume we do when using them as an example for discussing non-contradiction: we don’t need to use the actual meanings yet. (Well, with one exception: I assume “there is a God” and “there is no God” are mutually contradictory for any reasonable meaning we could possibly put behind those words.)
Probable, given the background information at the time.
Before Darwin, remember that the only known powerful optimizations processes where sentient beings. Clearly, Nature is the result of an optimization process (it’s not random by a long shot), and a very very powerful one. It’s only natural to think it is sentient as well.
That is, until Darwin showed how a mindless process, very simple at it’s core, can do the work.
I’ve come across this arguments before—I think Dawkins makes it. It shows a certain level of civilised recognition of how you might have another view. But I think there’s also a risk that because we do have Darwin, we’re quick to just accept that he’s the reason why Creation isn’t a good explanation. I actually think Hume deconstructed the argument very well in his Dialogue Concerning Natural Religion.
Explaining complexity through God suffers from various questions
1) what sort of God (Hume suggests a coalition of Gods, warring Gods, a young or old and senile God as possibilities)
2) what other things seem to often lead to complexity (the universe as an organism, essentially)
3) the potential of sheer magnitude of space and time to allow pockets of apparent order to arise
Explaining complexity through God suffers from various questions
Whose answers tend to just be “Poof Magic”. While I do have a problem with “Poof Magic”, I can’t explain it away without quite deep scientific arguments. And “Poof Magic”, while unsatisfactory to any properly curious mind, have no complexity problem.
Now that I think of it, I may have to qualify the argument I made above. I didn’t know about Hume, so maybe the God Hypothesis wasn’t so good even before Newton and Darwin after all. At least assuming the background knowledge available to the best thinkers of the time.
The laypeople, however, may not have had a choice but to believe in some God. I mean, I doubt there was some simple argument they could understand (and believe) at the time. Now, with the miracles of technology, I think it’s much easier.
An extremely low probability of the observation under some theory is not itself evidence. It’s extremely unlikely that the I would randomly come up with the number 0.0135814709894468, and yet I did.
It’s only interesting if there is some other possibility that assigns a different probability to that outcome.
I can’t assign any remarkable property to the number you came up with, not even the fact that I came up with it myself earlier (I didn’t). So of course I’m not surprised that you came up with it.
Our universe, on the other hand, supports sentient life. That’s quite a remarkable property, which presumably spans only a tiny fraction of all “possible universes” (whatever that means). Then, under the assumption our universe is the only one, and was created randomly, then we’re incredibly lucky to exist at all. So, there is a good deal of improbability to explain. And God just sounds perfect.
Worse, I actually think God is a pretty good explanation until you know about evolution. And Newton, to hint at the universality of simple laws of physics. And probably more, since we still don’t know for instance how intelligence and conciousness actually work —though we do have strong hints. And multiverses, and anthropic reasoning and…
Alas, those are long-winded arguments. I think the outside view is more accessible: technology accomplishes more and more impressive miracles, and it doesn’t run on God (it’s all about mechanisms, not phlebotinum). But I don’t feel this is the strongest argument, and I wouldn’t try to present it as knock down.
Now, if I actually argue with a theist, I won’t start by those. First, I’ll try to agree on something. Most likely, non-contradiction and excluded middle. Either there is a God, or there is none, and either way, one of us is mistaken. If we can’t agree with even that (happens with some agnostics), I just give up. (No, wait, I don’t.)
Or the two of you mean different things by “a God”, or even by “there is”.
First things first.
Make sure everyone accept the non-contradiction principle and mark the ones that don’t as “beyond therapy” (or patiently explain that “truth” business to them).
Make sure everyone use the same definitions for the subject at hand.
My limited experience tells me that most theists will readily accept point one, believing that there is a God, and I’m mistaken to believe otherwise. I praise them for their coherence, then move on to what we actually mean by “God” and such.
EDIT: I may need to be more explicit: I think the non-contradiction principle is more fundamental than the possible existence of a God, and as such should be settled first. Settling the definition for any particular question always come second. It only seems to come first in most discussions because the non-contradiction principle is generally common knowledge.
Also, I do accept there is a good chance the theist and I do not put the same meanings under the same words. It’s just simpler to assume we do when using them as an example for discussing non-contradiction: we don’t need to use the actual meanings yet. (Well, with one exception: I assume “there is a God” and “there is no God” are mutually contradictory for any reasonable meaning we could possibly put behind those words.)
What exactly do you mean by “good explanation”?
Probable, given the background information at the time.
Before Darwin, remember that the only known powerful optimizations processes where sentient beings. Clearly, Nature is the result of an optimization process (it’s not random by a long shot), and a very very powerful one. It’s only natural to think it is sentient as well.
That is, until Darwin showed how a mindless process, very simple at it’s core, can do the work.
I’ve come across this arguments before—I think Dawkins makes it. It shows a certain level of civilised recognition of how you might have another view. But I think there’s also a risk that because we do have Darwin, we’re quick to just accept that he’s the reason why Creation isn’t a good explanation. I actually think Hume deconstructed the argument very well in his Dialogue Concerning Natural Religion.
Explaining complexity through God suffers from various questions 1) what sort of God (Hume suggests a coalition of Gods, warring Gods, a young or old and senile God as possibilities) 2) what other things seem to often lead to complexity (the universe as an organism, essentially) 3) the potential of sheer magnitude of space and time to allow pockets of apparent order to arise
Whose answers tend to just be “Poof Magic”. While I do have a problem with “Poof Magic”, I can’t explain it away without quite deep scientific arguments. And “Poof Magic”, while unsatisfactory to any properly curious mind, have no complexity problem.
Now that I think of it, I may have to qualify the argument I made above. I didn’t know about Hume, so maybe the God Hypothesis wasn’t so good even before Newton and Darwin after all. At least assuming the background knowledge available to the best thinkers of the time.
The laypeople, however, may not have had a choice but to believe in some God. I mean, I doubt there was some simple argument they could understand (and believe) at the time. Now, with the miracles of technology, I think it’s much easier.