How many alternatives would you keep inventing before you update your probability of it actually working?
Precisely the hypotheses that are more likely than homeopathy. Once I’ve falsified those the probability starts pouring into homeopathy. Jaynes’ “Probability Theory: The Logic Of Science”, explains this really well in Chapter 4 and the “telepathy” example of Chapter 5. In particular I learnt a lot by staring at Figure 4.1.
Precisely the hypotheses that are more likely than homeopathy. Once I’ve falsified those the probability starts pouring into homeopathy. Jaynes’ “Probability Theory: The Logic Of Science”, explains this really well in Chapter 4 and the “telepathy” example of Chapter 5. In particular I learnt a lot by staring at Figure 4.1.