What is the current bottleneck on MS-1? Are we better off raiding Neumann’s corpse, extracting the DNA and then implanting all the embryos we can make? Or are we better off with the current strategies of sequencing intelligent people to uncover the genetics of intelligence, which would then allow embryo selection or engineering? With the latter, the main bottleneck seems to be the cost of sequencing (since one needs a lot of genomes to discern the signal through all the noise), but that cost is being pushed down by the free market at a breathtaking pace—and indeed, the Beijing Genomics Institute (see Hsu, IIRC) is already working hard on the task of sequencing smart kids.
What is the current bottleneck on MS-1? Are we better off raiding Neumann’s corpse, extracting the DNA and then implanting all the embryos we can make?
We can’t clone humans at the moment. Even attempts to derive human stem cell lines from cloning have been disappointing, and reproductive cloning would face much higher barriers. Even if it could be made to work Dolly-style, you would still be producing huge numbers of miscarriages, early deaths, and damaged offspring for each success. That would not only increase the economic cost, but be incredibly unattractive for parents and a PR nightmare.
Or are we better off with the current strategies of sequencing intelligent people to uncover the genetics of intelligence, which would then allow embryo selection or engineering?
We can do embryo selection, but the relevant alleles would need to be identified in large studies (with the effectiveness of selection scaling with the portion of variation explained). The BGI study may expose a number of candidates, but I would expect the majority to be captured through linking genetic data collected for other reasons (or as part of comprehensive biobanks) to be matched to military or educational testing data, tax records, and so forth.
With the latter, the main bottleneck seems to be the cost of sequencing
Recent results suggest that much of intelligence variation in middle-class samples can be explained by the SNPs tracked by modern microarrays (used by 23andme and similar companies), without need for whole genome sequencing (which would capture rarer variants). The bottleneck seems to be more a matter of large studies (SNP-chip or whole genome) than whole-genome sequencing as such. BGI is not using whole genome sequencing, for instance.
ETA: Early applications would also remain costly in out-of-pocket terms (although they would easily pay for themselves in lifetime earnings and tax payments): IVF with PGD costs tens of thousands of dollars per successful pregnancy, allowing the selection of perhaps one embryo in six. If embryos could be exactly ranked by cognitive ability or scientific potential (a tall order, near 100% of heritability explained), that could be enough to boost the distribution by a standard deviation of genetic potential. Since environmental factors matter too, that might deliver only 8-12 IQ points. With imperfect knowledge of the genetics of intelligence the gains would be less. Likewise if parents (or governments) also select for other traits (height, appearance, longevity, personality, etc).
A method for producing huge numbers of eggs (from stem cells, or maturing eggs from ovarian biopsies) could make this technique much more powerful (selecting from more embryos per pregnancy, and eliminating the scarcity of eggs from sought-after donors), but that would require advances in biology and reproductive medicine. There are experimental versions, and claims that they will be made to work within a decade, but such predictions have a poor track record in other medical fields.
Even if it could be made to work Dolly-style, you would still be producing huge numbers of miscarriages, early deaths, and damaged offspring for each success.
Yes, this is what I was alluding to: of the 2 obvious routes to reproducing von Neumann levels of intelligence by playing god with genetics, the first one, the one OP seems to be suggesting, is abhorrent and troublesome. The second one seems straightforward and supported by the current state of understanding—but doesn’t require the lobbying etc. (as OP proposed) as it’s effectively already being done.
What is the current bottleneck on MS-1? Are we better off raiding Neumann’s corpse, extracting the DNA and then implanting all the embryos we can make?
BTW, does anyone know of the...status...of said corpse? ’Tis but a purely academic curiosity, I assure you.
What is the current bottleneck on MS-1? Are we better off raiding Neumann’s corpse, extracting the DNA and then implanting all the embryos we can make? Or are we better off with the current strategies of sequencing intelligent people to uncover the genetics of intelligence, which would then allow embryo selection or engineering? With the latter, the main bottleneck seems to be the cost of sequencing (since one needs a lot of genomes to discern the signal through all the noise), but that cost is being pushed down by the free market at a breathtaking pace—and indeed, the Beijing Genomics Institute (see Hsu, IIRC) is already working hard on the task of sequencing smart kids.
We can’t clone humans at the moment. Even attempts to derive human stem cell lines from cloning have been disappointing, and reproductive cloning would face much higher barriers. Even if it could be made to work Dolly-style, you would still be producing huge numbers of miscarriages, early deaths, and damaged offspring for each success. That would not only increase the economic cost, but be incredibly unattractive for parents and a PR nightmare.
We can do embryo selection, but the relevant alleles would need to be identified in large studies (with the effectiveness of selection scaling with the portion of variation explained). The BGI study may expose a number of candidates, but I would expect the majority to be captured through linking genetic data collected for other reasons (or as part of comprehensive biobanks) to be matched to military or educational testing data, tax records, and so forth.
Recent results suggest that much of intelligence variation in middle-class samples can be explained by the SNPs tracked by modern microarrays (used by 23andme and similar companies), without need for whole genome sequencing (which would capture rarer variants). The bottleneck seems to be more a matter of large studies (SNP-chip or whole genome) than whole-genome sequencing as such. BGI is not using whole genome sequencing, for instance.
ETA: Early applications would also remain costly in out-of-pocket terms (although they would easily pay for themselves in lifetime earnings and tax payments): IVF with PGD costs tens of thousands of dollars per successful pregnancy, allowing the selection of perhaps one embryo in six. If embryos could be exactly ranked by cognitive ability or scientific potential (a tall order, near 100% of heritability explained), that could be enough to boost the distribution by a standard deviation of genetic potential. Since environmental factors matter too, that might deliver only 8-12 IQ points. With imperfect knowledge of the genetics of intelligence the gains would be less. Likewise if parents (or governments) also select for other traits (height, appearance, longevity, personality, etc).
A method for producing huge numbers of eggs (from stem cells, or maturing eggs from ovarian biopsies) could make this technique much more powerful (selecting from more embryos per pregnancy, and eliminating the scarcity of eggs from sought-after donors), but that would require advances in biology and reproductive medicine. There are experimental versions, and claims that they will be made to work within a decade, but such predictions have a poor track record in other medical fields.
Yes, this is what I was alluding to: of the 2 obvious routes to reproducing von Neumann levels of intelligence by playing god with genetics, the first one, the one OP seems to be suggesting, is abhorrent and troublesome. The second one seems straightforward and supported by the current state of understanding—but doesn’t require the lobbying etc. (as OP proposed) as it’s effectively already being done.
BTW, does anyone know of the...status...of said corpse? ’Tis but a purely academic curiosity, I assure you.
Princeton.