I’d love to see something similar but with a higher level of difficulty to see whether the prediction markets have a significant advantage over a casual guess. According to their data, the difference is small, casual guess is about 75% right, and the prediction market is maybe 82% right?
I’d love to see something similar but with a higher level of difficulty to see whether the prediction markets have a significant advantage over a casual guess. According to their data, the difference is small, casual guess is about 75% right, and the prediction market is maybe 82% right?