re: “Get this wrong” versus “the balance should be better,” there are two different things that are being discussed. The first is about defining individual questions via clear resolution criteria, which I think is doe well, and the second is about defining clear principles that provide context and inform what types of questions and resolution criteria are considered good form.
A question like “will Democrats pass H.R.2280 and receive 51 votes in the Senate” is very well defined, but super-narrow, and easily resolved “incorrectly” if the bill is incorporated into another bill, or if an adapted bill is proposed by a moderate Republican and passes instead, or passed via some other method, or if it passes but gets vetoed by Biden. But it isn’t an unclear question, and given the current way that Metaculus is run, would probably be the best way of phrasing the question. Still, it’s a sub-par question, given the principles I mentioned. A better one would be “Will a bill such as H.R.2280 limiting or banning straw purchases of firearms be passed by the current Congress and enacted?” It’s much less well defined, but the boundaries are very different. It also uses “passed” and “enacted”, which have gray areas. At the same time, the failure modes are closer to the ones that we care about near the boundary of the question. However, given the current system, this question is obviously worse—it’s harder to resolve, it’s more likely to be ambiguous because a bill that does only some of the thing we care about is passed, etc.
Still, I agree that the boundaries here are tricky, and I’d love to think more about how to do this better.
re: “Get this wrong” versus “the balance should be better,” there are two different things that are being discussed. The first is about defining individual questions via clear resolution criteria, which I think is doe well, and the second is about defining clear principles that provide context and inform what types of questions and resolution criteria are considered good form.
A question like “will Democrats pass H.R.2280 and receive 51 votes in the Senate” is very well defined, but super-narrow, and easily resolved “incorrectly” if the bill is incorporated into another bill, or if an adapted bill is proposed by a moderate Republican and passes instead, or passed via some other method, or if it passes but gets vetoed by Biden. But it isn’t an unclear question, and given the current way that Metaculus is run, would probably be the best way of phrasing the question. Still, it’s a sub-par question, given the principles I mentioned. A better one would be “Will a bill such as H.R.2280 limiting or banning straw purchases of firearms be passed by the current Congress and enacted?” It’s much less well defined, but the boundaries are very different. It also uses “passed” and “enacted”, which have gray areas. At the same time, the failure modes are closer to the ones that we care about near the boundary of the question. However, given the current system, this question is obviously worse—it’s harder to resolve, it’s more likely to be ambiguous because a bill that does only some of the thing we care about is passed, etc.
Still, I agree that the boundaries here are tricky, and I’d love to think more about how to do this better.