Sorry if this is an ignorant question, but wouldn’t it be better to cut off making predictions before the actual resolution?
Predictions made just before an event resolves do not add much value to the world. Having your prediction market “shoot up to 100” in the days or hours before an event is a restatement of other widespread information, in contrast to a 60% chance a month out, which is a better aggregate of diffuse knowledge.
In many cases, yes. But for some events, the “obvious” answers are not fully clear until well after the event in question takes place—elections, for example.
Sorry if this is an ignorant question, but wouldn’t it be better to cut off making predictions before the actual resolution?
Predictions made just before an event resolves do not add much value to the world. Having your prediction market “shoot up to 100” in the days or hours before an event is a restatement of other widespread information, in contrast to a 60% chance a month out, which is a better aggregate of diffuse knowledge.
In many cases, yes. But for some events, the “obvious” answers are not fully clear until well after the event in question takes place—elections, for example.