It feels to me like the decisive metric is going to be investment in non-oil energy infrastructure. There appears to be a big enough shift that it is expected to impact natural gas investments in Europe, but the oil question is quite a bit more diffuse, which might accidentally weigh in oil’s favor. What I have in mind when I say the diffusion weighs in oil’s favor is that it is trivial to get oil from elsewhere, and I expect most of the EU countries would be perfectly happy with buying oil from a Gulf country while that country buys discounted Russian oil in turn.
It feels to me like the decisive metric is going to be investment in non-oil energy infrastructure. There appears to be a big enough shift that it is expected to impact natural gas investments in Europe, but the oil question is quite a bit more diffuse, which might accidentally weigh in oil’s favor. What I have in mind when I say the diffusion weighs in oil’s favor is that it is trivial to get oil from elsewhere, and I expect most of the EU countries would be perfectly happy with buying oil from a Gulf country while that country buys discounted Russian oil in turn.