The conclusion, while ridiculous, is not too misleading in practice. 100 is the right order of magnitude that one would expect to have to play to get one—the expected time of the first reward is 100, and it does have an expected return of 1 after 100 times. Of course, it only has a 63.4% chance of getting at least one after 100 times.
Oh, certainly. I wouldn’t expect somebody to calculate that in their head; what amused me is not that he thought that he ought to get it within 100 tries, but that he expected to get it on the 100th try.
The conclusion, while ridiculous, is not too misleading in practice. 100 is the right order of magnitude that one would expect to have to play to get one—the expected time of the first reward is 100, and it does have an expected return of 1 after 100 times. Of course, it only has a 63.4% chance of getting at least one after 100 times.
Oh, certainly. I wouldn’t expect somebody to calculate that in their head; what amused me is not that he thought that he ought to get it within 100 tries, but that he expected to get it on the 100th try.