Definitely agree that the AI community is not biased towards short timelines. Long timelines are the dominant view, while the short timelines view is associated with hype. Many researchers are concerned about the field losing credibility (and funding) if the hype bubble bursts, and this is especially true for those who experienced the AI winters. They see the long timelines view as appropriately skeptical and more scientifically respectable.
Some examples of statements that AGI is far away from high-profile AI researchers:
Definitely agree that the AI community is not biased towards short timelines. Long timelines are the dominant view, while the short timelines view is associated with hype. Many researchers are concerned about the field losing credibility (and funding) if the hype bubble bursts, and this is especially true for those who experienced the AI winters. They see the long timelines view as appropriately skeptical and more scientifically respectable.
Some examples of statements that AGI is far away from high-profile AI researchers:
Geoffrey Hinton: https://venturebeat.com/2018/12/17/geoffrey-hinton-and-demis-hassabis-agi-is-nowhere-close-to-being-a-reality/
Yann LeCun: https://www.facebook.com/yann.lecun/posts/10153426023477143 https://futurism.com/conscious-ai-decades-away https://www.facebook.com/yann.lecun/posts/10153368458167143
Yoshua Bengio: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4qPy8jwRxLg9qWLiG/yoshua-bengio-on-ai-progress-hype-and-risks
Rodney Brooks: https://rodneybrooks.com/the-seven-deadly-sins-of-predicting-the-future-of-ai/ https://rodneybrooks.com/agi-has-been-delayed/