“Do you want to justifiably believe that you are more rational than others, smugly knowing your beliefs are more accurate?”
Is this what people want? To me it would make more sense to cultivate the belief that one is NOT more rational than others, and that one’s beliefs are no more likely than theirs to be accurate, a priori. Try to overcome the instinct that a belief is probably correct merely because it is yours.
Now I can understand that for people at the cutting edge of society, pushing into new frontiers like Robin and Eliezer, this would not work. If someone came up to Robin and criticized idea futures, or to Eliezer and said that friendly AI would not work, and they responded, “oh, I guess maybe you’re right, thanks”—well, then, they wouldn’t get anything done.
But for most of us, this is not an issue. Factual disagreements in my experience are seldom about things that would keep us from being productive and successful in our lives. People tend to disagree most vociferously on things that don’t have the slightest impact on their lives, like political and sports questions. Isn’t that right?
Even for researchers, in a way it doesn’t matter because we are paying them to push the boundaries. It is their job to adopt opinions and fight for them. They are obligated to assume that just because an idea is theirs, it is probably right. Researchers are paid to be irrational in this way, and indeed it is hard to see how a rational person could be successful in science.
“Do you want to justifiably believe that you are more rational than others, smugly knowing your beliefs are more accurate?”
Is this what people want? To me it would make more sense to cultivate the belief that one is NOT more rational than others, and that one’s beliefs are no more likely than theirs to be accurate, a priori. Try to overcome the instinct that a belief is probably correct merely because it is yours.
Now I can understand that for people at the cutting edge of society, pushing into new frontiers like Robin and Eliezer, this would not work. If someone came up to Robin and criticized idea futures, or to Eliezer and said that friendly AI would not work, and they responded, “oh, I guess maybe you’re right, thanks”—well, then, they wouldn’t get anything done.
But for most of us, this is not an issue. Factual disagreements in my experience are seldom about things that would keep us from being productive and successful in our lives. People tend to disagree most vociferously on things that don’t have the slightest impact on their lives, like political and sports questions. Isn’t that right?
Even for researchers, in a way it doesn’t matter because we are paying them to push the boundaries. It is their job to adopt opinions and fight for them. They are obligated to assume that just because an idea is theirs, it is probably right. Researchers are paid to be irrational in this way, and indeed it is hard to see how a rational person could be successful in science.