Maybe the US is willing to spend all that money to lull adversaries into a false sense of nuclear security or to trick them into wasting money on sub-launched nuclear-tipped missiles, but that seems unlikely to me, and I know of no instance in which the US pretended to spend billions of dollars on a weapons system for the purpose of deceiving adversaries (which makes sense when you realize that the US military is acutely dependent on Congress for money, Congress members are acutely sensitive to voters, and a large fraction of voters are receptive to arguments that this or that weapons system is a waste of money.)
I think this is a fair description of the space shuttle program, tho it was for purposes of self-deception instead of other-deception. I think it would be more surprising to learn that the USG had noticed that its sub-detection systems could detect their own subs, and thus stop building new subs, than that they were merrily making things that were useless.
[For example, the number of submarines built is set by Congress, specifically the representative for the area economically dependent on submarine manufacturing, and has been higher than the number of subs the Navy would like to use for decades.]
I think it’s not very clarifying to round up to “military matters.” I think the US’s track record there for the last seventy years has not been very impressive, but the thing I specifically care about is the question: “does the USG spend lots of money on things that some part of it knows are a waste of money?”, to which the answer is: “yes, obviously.” Thus an argument that relies on “surely they wouldn’t waste money in this way” is just not in line with the evidence that we see.
I think this is a fair description of the space shuttle program, tho it was for purposes of self-deception instead of other-deception. I think it would be more surprising to learn that the USG had noticed that its sub-detection systems could detect their own subs, and thus stop building new subs, than that they were merrily making things that were useless.
[For example, the number of submarines built is set by Congress, specifically the representative for the area economically dependent on submarine manufacturing, and has been higher than the number of subs the Navy would like to use for decades.]
Clearly you believe that the US government is incompetent in military matters, then.
In your opinion, how far back in time does that incompetence go?
I think it’s not very clarifying to round up to “military matters.” I think the US’s track record there for the last seventy years has not been very impressive, but the thing I specifically care about is the question: “does the USG spend lots of money on things that some part of it knows are a waste of money?”, to which the answer is: “yes, obviously.” Thus an argument that relies on “surely they wouldn’t waste money in this way” is just not in line with the evidence that we see.